Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.55-28.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.95 → 0.95 EPS · FY ending Mar 31, 2028 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OESX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Successful integration of recent acquisitions and new CEO strategy | New CEO and recent acquisitions support a path to profitability. | Improving | material setbacks or failures in integration or strategy execution | 32% revenue growth vs qualitative target Recent earnings show 32% revenue growth, return to profit, and raised guidance, reinforcing the turnaround thesis. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-03-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a small-cap growth story with some turnaround traits, as earnings have moved from a loss to a profit while revenue and margins improved. The long-term thesis is still developing: recent results support progress, but the overall signal has softened and risk remains high.
OESX trades at a sizable premium to peers, while the valuation evidence flags the market’s expectations as unjustified and the valuation as fragile. The premium appears to leave limited room for weak execution, though confidence in this assessment is medium.
Over the multi-year view, continued growth and better profitability are plausible if management keeps delivering on its stated priorities. Revenue, gross margin, net income, and adjusted EBITDA improved through 2026-Q2, but recent earnings have been uneven, the latest signal softened, and the next report carries elevated miss risk. Near term, integration of Final Frontier remains a watch item because its financial contribution is not detailed.
The key company-level swing factor is whether OESX reaffirms its guidance and continues improving profitable growth; a cut would be a meaningful setback. Sector conditions also matter: continued strong results from ETN, VRT, and BE could support the Industrials backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
The 1-to-3-year thesis rests on sustained growth, improving profitability, and successful acquisition integration, against high risk and a valuation premium that appears demanding. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Orion Energy Systems Inc's published investment case. The stated target is positive adjusted EBITDA. |
| Improving |
| adjusted EBITDA remains negative through fiscal 2027 |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to at least $96 million in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in Orion Energy Systems Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >= $96 million. | Improving | revenue falls below $86 million in fiscal 2027 | Revenue: $25.743M FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $96 million. Target period ends 2027-03-31; this observation covers 2027-Q1. Aug 5, 202625,743,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.42 → $0.95 · observed estimates
$0.10B → $0.11B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.42 | $96,154,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.42 | $96,154,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.69 | $108,354,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.09 | $108,236,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.69 | $108,354,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.69 | $108,354,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.69 | $108,354,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.09 | $108,236,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.09 | $108,236,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.69 | $108,354,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.69 | $108,354,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.69 | $108,354,500 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.09 | $108,236,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.09 | $108,236,333 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.64 | $109,120,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.64 | $109,120,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.64 | $109,120,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.13 | $108,746,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.85 | $108,480,000 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.95 | $110,646,667 | 1 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.