Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.55-28.68%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OESX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 48.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 13.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers
OESX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 4, 2026, Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its quarterly financial results for its fiscal 2026 quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. . Item 9.01(d) . Financial Statements and Exhibits. Exhibit 99.1 Exhibit 99.1 Press Release of Orion Energy Systems, Inc. dated June 4, 2026 Exhibit 104 Cover Page Interactive Data…
Why it matters: The project is tied to purchase orders with uncertain timing. Orion expects most revenue in FY27's second half.
Supportive ifThe retailer issues purchase orders, and Orion records most of the $10M-$15M project revenue in FY27's second half.
Worry ifPurchase orders do not arrive in time, or Orion reports that the project will not bring most revenue in FY27's second half.
Why it matters: EV charging sales can shift with large project timing. Orion also cited uncertainty about project scope, pace, and funding.
Watch forEV charging revenue rises above Q1 FY27's $4.0M. Management reports more project funding or faster timing.
Also watch forEV charging revenue falls below $4.0M and management reports weaker project scope, pace, or funding.
Why it matters: Orion raised its FY27 revenue outlook after the retailer project. Meeting it would show that project demand is turning into sales.
Supportive ifFY27 reported revenue reaches at least $100M.
Worry ifOrion cuts FY27 revenue guidance below $100M or reports FY27 revenue below $100M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$283 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $730 loss on $10,000 · 7.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,276 loss on $10,000 · 52.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.