Orion Energy Systems Inc (OESX)
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$25.00+7.85%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsElectrical Equipment & PartsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OESX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 90.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 80.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Worth watching into the next print: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OESX — earnings miss
Dated 2026-06-04
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On June 4, 2026, Orion Energy Systems, Inc. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its quarterly financial results for its fiscal 2026 quarter ended March 31, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished as Exhibit 99.1 to this Current Report on Form 8-K. . Item 9.01(d) . Financial Statements and Exhibits. Exhibit 99.1 Exhibit 99.1 Press Release of Orion Energy Systems, Inc. dated June 4, 2026 Exhibit 104 Cover Page Interactive Data…
Why it matters: Confirming revenue guidance shows confidence in growth and market demand. It impacts investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement repeats revenue guidance of $95M to $97M for FY 2027.
Worry ifManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $95M.
Why it matters: Another earnings miss would show problems and hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifOrion reports another earnings miss in the upcoming earnings call.
Less concerning ifOrion meets or beats earnings expectations in the next earnings call.
Why it matters: A good revenue outlook shows the company can grow. This can help investor confidence.
Supportive ifOrion confirms FY 2026 revenue outlook of $84M-$86M in the upcoming earnings report.
Worry ifOrion revises FY 2026 revenue outlook down from $84M-$86M.
Why it matters: Positive adjusted EBITDA shows the company is doing well. This supports their growth claims.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 remains above $2.5M.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA for Q2 drops below $2.5M.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$256 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $704 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,276 loss on $10,000 · 52.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A bigger backlog shows strong future sales and demand for Orion's services.
Supportive ifBacklog grows to more than $30M.
Worry ifBacklog decreases or stays below $30M.
Why it matters: Missing earnings again would show ongoing money problems.
Worry ifAnother earnings report shows a miss on revenue or earnings.
Less concerning ifEarnings report shows a beat on revenue or earnings expectations.
Why it matters: Integrating Final Frontier could help Orion grow. It may also improve its services.
Watch forThe acquisition of Final Frontier is now complete.
Also watch forThe acquisition is facing delays or problems.
Why it matters: If the company meets or exceeds this growth rate, it shows strong sales and market growth.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth of 32% or more compared to Q2's $25.7M.
Worry ifIf Q3 revenue growth is below 25%, it shows sales are slowing down.
Why it matters: High growth in LED lighting revenue shows strong demand and good market entry.
Supportive ifLED lighting revenue growth above 30% YoY in Q3.
Worry ifIf LED lighting revenue growth is below 20% YoY, it means demand is weakening.