Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
OFG Bancorp (OFG)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$51.51+0.59%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
5.12 → 5.18 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OFG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
dividend per share increase | OFG Bancorp steadily raises its dividend, now $0.35 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.30 next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.35 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: dividend per share >= $0.35 next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 6, 20260.35 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OFG is a bank investment with a moderate risk profile and robust earnings quality, rather than a clear turnaround or fast-growth story. The long-term thesis is on watch: the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable, and recent financial performance trails its industry cohort.
The valuation is tagged as justified, with a small gap between expectations and the model’s view. OFG trades at a premium to peers despite a value assessment of cheap, so that apparent value needs to be read alongside the peer premium. Fragility is low, and the evidence does not point to concentrated expectations risk.
Near term, recent earnings beats are encouraging, but total core revenues eased from the prior quarter and deposits declined slightly, even as loans grew. Expense fell, though much of the change came from the absence of prior-quarter operational charges; digital-bank progress is also not quantified. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but past misses and recent peer misses remain worth watching.
The multi-year thesis depends on continued loan growth alongside a recovery in deposit strength, and on clearer evidence that digital banking is attracting and retaining clients. Near term, a guidance cut would be a meaningful negative, while falling rates could weigh on the sector; continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support momentum.
For the next 1 to 3 years, OFG has sound earnings quality and some evidence of loan growth, but mixed execution and below-cohort recent performance leave the long-term thesis on watch. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Net income improved from $45.57M to $53.94M in one year. |
| Intact |
| net income falls below $45M next 4 quarters |
Net income: $58.777M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: net income >= $53.94M next 4 quarters. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 202658,777,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
operating income improvement | Operating income rose by $9.34M, showing good cost control. | Intact | operating income falls below $60M next 4 quarters | Operating income: $74.484M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: operating income >= $68.79M next 4 quarters. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 202674,484,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
revenue stability or growth | A supporting condition in OFG Bancorp's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline limited to no worse than -5% next 4 quarters. | Intact | revenue decline exceeds -5% next 4 quarters | Revenue growth: 1.44% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: revenue decline limited to no worse than -5% next 4 quarters. Reported actuals cannot certify a consensus target without an explicit period and accounting-basis binding. Aug 6, 20261.442266 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$5.01 → $5.18 · observed estimates
$0.75B → $0.76B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-09 | $5.01 | $753,958,750 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-10 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 5 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $5.01 | $753,958,800 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $5.12 | $760,277,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $5.12 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $5.15 | $760,902,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $5.21 | $764,773,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $5.18 | $764,948,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $5.18 | $764,948,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $5.18 | $764,948,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $5.18 | $764,948,500 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.