OFG Bancorp (OFG)
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$53.22+0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OFG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -4.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -2.7% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 1.7 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
OFG — earnings miss
Dated 2025-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On October 22, 2025, OFG Bancorp (the “Company”) announced the results for the quarter ended September 30, 2025. A copy of the Company’s press release is attached as an exhibit to this report.
Why it matters: Core revenue growth shows strong operations. It also shows demand in the market.
Supportive ifTotal core revenues exceed $190 million in the next quarter.
Worry ifTotal core revenues fall below $190 million.
Why it matters: Net interest margin changes can impact profits. They can also affect financial health.
Watch forNet interest margin exceeds 5.36% in Q2 2026.
Also watch forNet interest margin falls below 5.36% in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Strong loan production would indicate healthy demand and support revenue growth.
Supportive ifNew loan production exceeds $700 million in Q3.
Worry ifNew loan production falls below $700 million in Q3.
Why it matters: An increase shows good capital management. It also shows a commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifManagement announces a dividend increase. It will be more than $0.35 per share.
Worry ifNo dividend increase is announced in Q3.
Why it matters: Loan growth indicates demand and can drive future earnings growth.
Supportive ifLoans held for investment increase by more than 1% from Q1 2026.
Worry ifLoans held for investment decrease or grow less than 1% from Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Higher net charge-offs may show worse credit quality. This can hurt future earnings.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed $30 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below $30 million in Q3.
Why it matters: The sector is easing, and if OFG's revenue growth drops, it may signal further weakness. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifOFG's revenue growth falls below the sector median of 12%.
Less concerning ifOFG's revenue growth stays above the sector median of 12%.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth drops, it could impact OFG's performance and outlook.
Worry ifSector revenue growth falls below its median of 13%.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: More customer deposits show strong customer trust in OFG's services. This helps funding stability.
Supportive ifCustomer deposits increase from $9.66 billion in Q1 2026.
Worry ifCustomer deposits drop from $9.66 billion. This shows possible problems with keeping customers.
Why it matters: Slower core revenue growth may mean lower demand or problems in operations.
Worry ifCore revenue growth falls below 4.5% year-over-year in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifCore revenue growth stays above 4.5% year-over-year.
Why it matters: More net charge-offs may show credit quality problems. This can hurt profits.
Worry ifNet charge-offs exceed 1.40% of average loans in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNet charge-offs remain below 1.40% of average loans.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show if OFG can maintain its revenue growth and improve net income.
Watch forEarnings per share is over $1.26. This shows strong performance.
Also watch forEarnings per share falls below $1.00, suggesting a decline in financial health.
Why it matters: A rising dividend shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend per share increases above $0.35 in the next quarter.
Worry ifDividend per share remains at $0.35 or decreases.
Why it matters: More net income means the company is managed well. It also shows better profits.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $53.94 million.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 falls below $53.94 million.
Why it matters: This will show if OFG continues its growth in earnings and revenues. Investors will look for trends in net income and core revenues.
Supportive ifEarnings per share (EPS) growth exceeds 20% year over year.
Worry ifEPS growth is below 10% year over year.
Why it matters: A decline may show weaker business momentum. This can affect net income.
Worry ifCore revenues fall below $180 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCore revenues remain above $180 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in new loan production may mean less lending. This can affect future earnings.
Worry ifNew loan production shows a year-over-year decline in the next quarter.
Less concerning ifNew loan production goes up year-over-year.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$76 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $212 loss on $10,000 · 2.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,597 loss on $10,000 · 16.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.