Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Orthofix Medical, Inc. (OFIX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$8.92-8.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OFIX yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Positive free cash flow in 2026 | The company targets positive free cash flow this year. | Improving | free cash flow remains negative through FY26 | Free cash flow: $-18.871M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >0. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026-18,871,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a higher-risk growth and profitability improvement story, not yet a proven earnings compounder, because the company is loss-making. The long-term thesis is intact, with management priorities on revenue and adjusted EBITDA on track, but cash generation remains mixed.
The snapshot describes OFIX as cheap versus peers, while also tagging expectations as justified and reporting low valuation-model confidence. That points to a valuation discount without clear evidence that the market is assuming an unusually strong outcome.
Near term, recent earnings beats and slightly higher 2026 revenue guidance support continued growth, and adjusted EBITDA progress is described as steady. The main execution gap is cash flow: operating cash flow was negative in both the first and second quarters, despite management’s full-year positive free-cash-flow goal excluding legal settlements. Risk is elevated, and a guidance reversal or weaker employment data could weigh on the business outlook.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on delivering the 2026 revenue and adjusted EBITDA goals while improving cash generation. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage confidence; continued strength from healthcare peers could support the sector backdrop, while weaker jobs data could add recession concerns.
For the 1-3 year view, OFIX has a credible operating improvement story, but persistent losses and uncertain cash-flow progress keep the thesis conditional. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Orthofix Medical, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is no major negative leadership changes. |
| Under Pressure |
| significant executive departures or governance issues arise |
1 executive departure (President, Global Spine) vs 0 allowed News and events confirm the departure of the President of Global Spine, Max Reinhardt, in April 2026. Nov 5, 2026Last status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $838M to $848M revenue in 2026 | A primary condition in Orthofix Medical, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is ~$843M. | Intact | annual revenue falls below $810M in FY26 | Revenue: $210.933M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: ~$843M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 5, 2026210,933,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.88 → $-0.94 · observed estimates
$0.89B → $0.87B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.84 | $885,701,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.84 | $885,701,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.84 | $885,701,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.84 | $885,701,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.84 | $885,701,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.88 | $885,701,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.84 | $877,410,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.84 | $877,410,400 | 2 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.37 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.88 | $876,941,400 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.85 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.85 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.68 | $871,921,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.68 | $871,921,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.68 | $871,921,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.68 | $871,921,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.68 | $871,921,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.68 | $871,921,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.68 | $871,921,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.94 | $871,914,000 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-05 | $-0.94 | $873,642,500 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 1 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.