Orthofix Medical, Inc. (OFIX)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$9.29-0.21%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - DevicesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OFIX
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -75.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 78.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 87 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OFIX — President transition
Dated 2026-04-09
President, Global Spine — Max Reinhardt: Mr. Reinhardt is leaving the company as an executive and employee.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow shows better financial health. It is important for long-term growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow turns positive for Q3 2026, excluding legal settlements.
Worry ifFree cash flow remains negative for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This will show if the company is on track to meet its 2026 revenue goals. Poor growth could signal ongoing challenges.
Worry ifQ2 net sales growth reported below 5% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 net sales growth reported at or above 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Meeting this target shows good cost control and strong operations. This is important for making money.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP adjusted EBITDA is $95 million or more.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA is less than $95 million.
Why it matters: If they exceed guidance, it shows strong demand. This means they are executing well in the second half of 2026.
Supportive ifQ3 net sales guidance is raised above $855 million. This shows strong operational progress.
Worry ifQ3 net sales guidance remains at or below $855 million, suggesting weaker demand.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$184 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $465 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,486 loss on $10,000 · 44.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New products can drive sales growth and improve market position.
Supportive ifThey will announce successful product launches in the next quarter.
Worry ifNo announcements or delays in planned product launches.
Why it matters: Getting adjusted EBITDA of $95M to $98M shows good management and better margins. This helps long-term growth.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA meets or exceeds $95M.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA falls below $95M.
Why it matters: The company aims for $838M to $848M in revenue for 2026. Any update will show if they are on track.
Watch forRevenue guidance raised above $848M for 2026.
Also watch forRevenue guidance lowered below $838M for 2026.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment shows good execution and demand for Orthofix's products. This helps overall revenue.
Supportive ifGlobal Spine Fixation reports growth of 6% or more year-over-year.
Worry ifGlobal Spine Fixation growth is less than 6% year-over-year.
Why it matters: Positive free cash flow is essential for funding growth and operations. The current status is mixed.
Supportive ifFree cash flow was positive for Q2. This shows better financial stability.
Worry ifFree cash flow is still negative for Q2. This suggests ongoing cash management challenges.
Why it matters: Confirming guidance for Q3 net sales will show if growth trends continue. It reflects management's confidence in execution.
Supportive ifManagement confirms Q3 net sales guidance in the range of $845M to $855M.
Worry ifManagement revises Q3 net sales guidance down from the current range.
Why it matters: Good work from the new Spine leaders can boost sales. It shows management's new plan.
Supportive ifSpine segments grew more than 6% from last year in Q3.
Worry ifSpine segments grew less than 4% from last year in Q3.