Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Organon & Co. (OGN)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
$13.83-0.14%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.63 → 3.63 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 4 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OGN yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Cash from operating activities grows to at least $225 million in 2026-Q1 | Organon is growing cash from operations, up $150 million in one year. | Intact | cash from operating activities falls below $225 million in 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $370M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=225000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026370,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OGN is a value-oriented healthcare business with a cyclical risk profile, rather than a clear, steady compounder. Its long-term thesis is currently intact, though confidence is medium and execution remains uneven.
The valuation is described as cheap versus peers, and the expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are not especially demanding. The priced-in assessment is tagged as justified, with weak execution quality recognized but without the broader combination of expensive valuation and turbulent conditions.
Recent financial performance is strong relative to the industry, and reported revenue rose from the first to the third quarter of 2026. However, adjusted EBITDA for the first nine months was lower than in the same period of 2025, and consecutive earnings misses make near-term execution a concern. The merger remains a stated priority, but the supplied figures do not establish progress toward completion.
A guidance cut on the next call or further weakening in jobs data would add pressure, especially given OGN’s cyclical exposure and high risk. Continued strength from healthcare bellwethers could support the sector backdrop. Over the multi-year view, the key tests are completing the merger and showing expense discipline while maintaining operational performance.
The 1-to-3-year thesis rests on strong recent performance and a cheap-versus-peers valuation, balanced against earnings misses, lower year-to-date adjusted EBITDA, and unresolved execution milestones. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Gross margin holds near 31% in FY2025 |
| A supporting condition in Organon & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is 31%. |
| Intact |
| gross margin falls below 31% in FY2025 |
Gross margin: 55.21% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 31%. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 202655.209657 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income improves to at least $146 million in 2026-Q1 | Net income rose $59 million in the same period. | Broken | net income falls below $146 million in 2026-Q1 | Net income: $164M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=146000000 USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026164,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue remains near $6.2 billion in FY2026 | A primary condition in Organon & Co.'s published investment case. The stated target is >=6200000000 USD. | Intact | revenue falls below $6.2 billion in FY2026 | Revenue: $1.574B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=6200000000 USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 30, 20261,574,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.64 → $3.63 · observed estimates
$6.24B → $6.36B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.60 | $6,236,190,100 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.60 | $6,236,190,100 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.64 | $6,236,190,100 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.61 | $6,230,237,625 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.77 | $6,254,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.77 | $6,254,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.77 | $6,254,000,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.63 | $6,359,000,000 | 3 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.