Organon & Co. (OGN)
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.78+0.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - GeneralSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OGN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -48.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 50.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 10 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OGN — divestiture
Dated 2026-07-17
Other Events. As previously disclosed, on April 26, 2026, Organon & Co., a Delaware corporation (the “ Company ”), entered into an Agreement and Plan of Merger (the “ Merger Agreement ”) by and among the Company, Sun Pharmaceutical Holdings USA, Inc. (“ Sun Pharma USA ”), and Sun Pharma America, Inc., a wholly owned subsidiary of Sun Pharma USA (“ Merger Sub ”), and, solely for purposes of certain specified provisions of the Merger Agreement, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharma…
Why it matters: Positive cash flow is key for financial health. It helps support ongoing operations.
Supportive ifCash from operations exceeds $200 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash from operations falls below $150 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Growth in net income shows that the company is making more money and working well.
Supportive ifNet income reported above $150M in the next quarter.
Worry ifNet income falls below $140M.
Why it matters: The merger is a key growth priority. Its completion will shape Organon's future.
Supportive ifThe merger will close by early 2027. It will have all regulatory approvals.
Worry ifThe merger does not close. This is due to regulatory or shareholder problems.
Why it matters: Approval is crucial for the merger with Sun Pharma. It impacts future growth and stability.
Supportive ifOrganon stockholders vote in favor of the merger with Sun Pharma.
Worry ifStockholders reject the merger proposal during the vote.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$15 on $10,000 · ±0.1% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $411 loss on $10,000 · 4.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,795 loss on $10,000 · 47.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Finishing this deal could help growth. It may also add to Organon's products.
Supportive ifAn official announcement will confirm the deal is done.
Worry ifA notice about delays or problems could stop the deal from closing.
Why it matters: Better margins mean lower costs and better efficiency.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes above 30% in Q3.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 28% in Q3.
Why it matters: This shows that the company is managing costs well. It also shows good performance during tough times.
Supportive ifNet income for Q2 2026 exceeds $146 million, the amount reported in Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet income for Q2 2026 falls below $146 million.
Why it matters: Updates on approvals matter. They change the merger timeline and the overall plan.
Watch forRegulatory approvals for the merger are granted. There are no conditions.
Also watch forRegulatory bodies have big concerns. They may deny approval for the merger.
Why it matters: Falling below this amount may show cash flow problems and operational issues.
Worry ifCash from operating activities falls below $200M in Q3.
Less concerning ifCash from operating activities stays above $200M in Q3.
Why it matters: A larger decline shows worse trends in key product areas. This is especially true for Women's Health.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue drops more than 5% compared to Q2 2025.
Less concerning ifQ2 2026 revenue remains stable or grows compared to Q2 2025.
Why it matters: Falling revenue shows bigger problems in the Women's Health market.
Worry ifWomen's Health revenue declines more than 15% year over year in Q3.
Less concerning ifWomen's Health revenue stabilizes or grows year over year in Q3.