Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Omega Healthcare Investors (OHI)
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
$47.99-2.40%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-05
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.00 → 2.02 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 6, 2026 to Nov 5, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OHI yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain dividend per share at $0.67 | Omega Healthcare Investors keeps paying a steady dividend of $0.67 per share. | Intact | dividend per share falls below $0.67 next 4 quarters | Dividend per share: $0.68 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.67 per share. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 20260.68 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OHI is a healthcare real estate income business with a multi-year thesis built on investment activity, AFFO growth, and dividends. The thesis is intact, and recent results are strong, though management evidence is mixed and confidence in the overall assessment is medium.
The valuation evidence points to OHI being cheap, but it also shows a 2.05% premium versus peers and a 0.41 expectations gap tied to re-rating. The model has low confidence, so the evidence on what the market assumes is limited; fragility is low, with no fragility gates triggered.
Management has continued deploying capital, and it raised the 2026 AFFO guidance midpoint from $3.20 to $3.24 per share by 2026-Q2; it also increased the quarterly dividend from $0.67 to $0.68. Near term, the miss-risk assessment is quiet, but the evidence notes a high-miss-rate industry and a deep miss in OHI’s recent history. A guidance cut after the recent increase would damage management credibility.
The multi-year view depends on continued investment execution and on management sustaining its raised guidance. Near term, lower interest rates could support real estate, while weakness in sector peers could remove that tailwind. The October CEO transition is a watch point, though the event was rated neutral.
For the next 1 to 3 years, OHI’s stronger results, ongoing capital deployment, and dividend growth support an intact long-term thesis, while guidance credibility and sector conditions remain the main swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Omega Healthcare Investors's published investment case. The stated target is EPS between $3.19 and $3.25. |
| Intact |
| EPS guidance falls below $3.19 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $0.27 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: EPS between $3.19 and $3.25. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.27 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Net income improves to positive $151 million quarterly | Net income improved strongly to $151 million from a prior loss. | Intact | net income falls below zero next 4 quarters | Net income: $83.092M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $150 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 202683,092,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Increase revenue to at least $323 million quarterly | A primary condition in Omega Healthcare Investors's published investment case. The stated target is >= $323 million quarterly. | Intact | quarterly revenue falls below $319 million | Revenue: $340.554M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $323 million quarterly. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Nov 4, 2026340,554,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 5, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.03 → $2.02 · observed estimates
$1.16B → $1.18B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.03 | $1,155,032,990 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.03 | $1,156,256,660 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.03 | $1,156,256,660 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.03 | $1,156,256,660 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.03 | $1,156,256,660 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.03 | $1,156,256,660 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.03 | $1,156,256,660 | 5 / 9 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.01 | $1,154,260,434 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.01 | $1,154,260,434 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.04 | $1,162,148,870 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.04 | $1,162,148,870 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.04 | $1,161,114,240 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.04 | $1,161,114,240 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.04 | $1,161,114,240 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.04 | $1,161,114,240 | 5 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.02 | $1,135,303,378 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.03 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.04 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.01 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.01 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.01 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.01 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.01 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.01 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.01 | $1,140,506,749 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.02 | $1,142,594,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.02 | $1,142,594,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.02 | $1,142,594,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.02 | $1,142,594,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.02 | $1,142,594,449 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 6 / 5 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.00 | $1,139,836,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.00 | $1,141,776,437 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.00 | $1,141,746,822 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.00 | $1,167,375,660 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.00 | $1,167,375,660 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.00 | $1,167,375,660 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.00 | $1,167,375,660 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.00 | $1,167,375,660 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.00 | $1,167,375,660 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.00 | $1,167,375,660 | 5 / 5 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.01 | $1,170,193,842 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.01 | $1,170,193,842 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.01 | $1,170,193,842 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.01 | $1,170,193,842 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.01 | $1,170,193,842 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.01 | $1,170,193,842 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.02 | $1,172,068,388 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.01 | $1,176,050,486 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.01 | $1,176,050,486 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.02 | $1,177,267,152 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.02 | $1,177,267,152 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.02 | $1,177,267,152 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.02 | $1,177,267,152 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.02 | $1,177,267,152 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.02 | $1,177,267,152 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.02 | $1,177,267,152 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.02 | $1,177,256,811 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.02 | $1,177,256,811 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.02 | $1,177,256,811 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.02 | $1,177,256,811 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.02 | $1,177,256,811 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.02 | $1,177,256,807 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-05 | $2.02 | $1,177,256,807 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 9 Buy / Strong Buy · 9 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 7–Nov 5 · 4 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 7, 2026–Nov 5, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.