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OHI
Omega Healthcare InvestorsNYSEReal EstateReit - Healthcare FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-06-12
Intact
$45.77+1.08%
Close 2026-06-12 · 1-day change
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
The bottom line
Recent financial performance is neutral, and earnings quality is robust, cash backs up reported profits. Management's recent track record has been fairly steady, but the capital stance is capital unfriendly. Risk is moderate, and the sector backdrop is a headwind, which may impact performance compared with sector peers, where it is typical. Peer multiples imply a price about 112% below where it trades (it looks expensive on this basis); the read is rich. This assessment is provisional.
as of 2026-06-12
Quick facts
- Exchange
- NYSE
- Sector
- Real Estate
- Industry
- Reit - Healthcare Facilities
- Market cap
- $14.24B
- Employees
- —
- IPO date
- 1996-05-09
- Next earnings
- —
Price
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots are placed inline.
Adjusted daily closes (split & dividend). Scroll over the chart to zoom; click a range to reset.
EarningsMaterial event
What's priced in
(what the market already expects)What it's worth (estimated)
A consensus fair price across 5 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $45.77. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
12-month· primaryexpensive
$21.63consensus
Range $13.18 – $31.62
vs price: +112% above
Method agreement — · 5 methods
No-growth: today's peer multiple on trailing earnings. The headline read.
3-yearexpensive
$20.33consensus
Range $13.43 – $32.14
vs price: +125% above
Method agreement — · 3 methods
Embeds projected growth. Leans optimistic by design. Upside context.
5-yearexpensive
How much to trust our fair value
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
Durable premiumlow confidence
At $46 the market pays 22× p/e — above the 15× p/e peer median but in line with its own 22× history. That premium reflects a durable franchise our peer-anchored $23 fair value understates; treat the 'expensive vs peers' read with low confidence. Analysts: $48–$54. Not investment advice.
Multiple (P/E)
21.8x
peer 14.8x · own history 22.1x
Premium
1.5x peer
1.0x its own history
Growth the price needs
100%
our forecast 15%
Our fair value
$22.87
range $14.16 – $31.78
Analyst range(a guide on our number, not a target)Our number is below the analyst range
How this stock is priced
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
expensiverich12-month view
What's priced inUnjustified
The market is pricing in roughly 100% near-term growth, well above our forecast of about 15%. This describes what's priced in, not a forecast of the move.
Elevated fragilityrisk posture, not a price call
Flags: expensive valuation, a turbulent sector regime (Heating).
Historical context
For similar setups historically (n=2,301): about 43% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 77% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
How strong is the business
(quality & execution)Factor signals
Each factor is a parallel diagnostic with a clear read of what it shows and how names like it have historically fared. Never aggregated into a single score.
Recent financial performance
neutralOperating income rose in 1 of the last 3 quarter-over-quarter moves. Historically, Real Estate names rated neutral grew net income 53% of the time over the next year (vs 57% for the rest of the cohort, n=1968).
64th pctl · Real Estate
Earnings quality
robustOver the trailing year it converted 21.40x of net income into operating cash flow. Historically, Real Estate names rated robust grew net income 59% of the time over the next year (vs 50% for the rest of the cohort, n=1399).
96th pctl · Real Estate
Macro sensitivity
Most sensitive to real (inflation-adjusted) rates and long-term interest rates.
- real (inflation-adjusted) rates: This stock behaves like a long-duration asset — tends to fall when real rates rise.
- long-term interest rates: This stock tends to fall when long-term rates rise.
Not enough signal to read sensitivity to the US dollar, the broad stock market, Fed net liquidity.
Earnings setup & market context
The next print and the backdrop around it (sector regime and the AI cycle). Context for the path, not a forecast of returns.
Earnings setup · pre-print positioning
forward-looking
Bearish1 analysts, 39% Buyfor period ending 2026-06-30
Why this setup
Consensus revisions
EPS estimate $0.49 → $0.49 (-0.2% / 30d). 0 raised, 0 cut, 1 covering analysts.
Rating actions
0 upgrades, 0 downgrades / 30d, 3 maintained. 39% of analysts rate Buy.
Price target activity
1 PT revisions / 30d. Avg target 3.0% above current price.
Material events
0 positive, 1 negative / 30d. See F4 management tile for the event list.
Sector context
Intermediate · WeeklySector phase: is in (~1.2 years in phase).
Management scorecard
How management runs the business: capital, margins, balance sheet, and how reliably they guide and deliver.
Long-term · 1–3 yr
Overall: strong
- Capital allocation
- strong
- Earnings discipline
- strong
- Margin discipline
- neutral
- Balance sheet
- neutral
- Post-call reaction
- strong
A guidance track record builds as the company issues and delivers on guidance.
How bumpy is the path
(risk while you hold it)Risk: how this stock moves
What a normal day, a bad day, and the worst of the last year would mean for a $10,000 position.
Intermediate · WeeklyLong-term · 1–3 yr
On a typical day, $10k can swing ±$81.
How much price usually moves either way.
On a bad day, this stock has moved -$171.
A rough but not unusual down day (about the 95th percentile).
In the worst 12 months, $10k could have lost $1,086.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
moderateas of 2026-06-12
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
What would change the read
(catalysts & re-read triggers)What changed
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Short-term · Daily
- No material changes since the prior snapshot.
No material changes since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-06-12
What to watch next
Specific, dated things to watch for, each with what would confirm it and what would prove it wrong.
Intermediate · Weekly
- UpsideHigh confidenceMonthsactive 7d
Watch for Q2 earnings report on July 30, 2026
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if revenue growth continues. This is key for investors.
What confirms / what disproves
Confirms:Revenue growth exceeds 7% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Disproves:Revenue growth falls below 5% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Sector context
News catalysts
Recent news graded against this company's own objectives — whether it reinforces or challenges the thesis, and how confirmed it is.
No graded news catalysts for OHI yet.
This sector is also watching
- Watch for impact of upcoming economic reports on Real Estate
- Watch for revenue growth across major REITs to re-accelerate
What could change this view
Conditional scenarios: if X happens, the view would shift in this direction. These are not predictions.
Intermediate · Weekly
Upside triggers
- If the Fed starts cutting rates from the current 3.62%, that would be a tailwind for OHI and other Real Estate names, since rate-sensitive parts of the market tend to rally when the Fed eases.
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, VTR, and DOC keep beating earnings and guiding higher, the Real Estate sector momentum should keep lifting OHI and other Real Estate names. Worth watching these names for early signals.
Downside triggers
- If OHI reverses and cuts guidance after recently raising (RAISED as of 2026-04-28), that's the worst kind of move: a credibility hit on top of the lower number. Stocks usually get punished disproportionately for this.
- If sector bellwethers like WELL, VTR, and DOC start missing or guiding lower, the Real Estate tailwind helping OHI and other Real Estate names could fade. Watch these names for early warning.
- If GDP growth slows materially from the current 2.6% (say, below 2%), it hits OHI and other Real Estate names harder than the average stock, since the sector is growth-sensitive.
Recent events
(material 8-K / filing activity)Material updates
Recent SEC 8-K filings ranked by likely impact, confidence, and recency.
- 2026-05-2123d agoItem 5.02
CEO and CFO — Mr. Pickett and Mr. Stephenson: The CEO and CFO are departing with transition agreements and consulting arrangements.
Executive changenegative
Score history
Whether the overall read has been drifting up or down lately, and how it's changed since last week.
-5.1 vs last weeklatest as of 2026-06-13
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.