Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Oklo, Inc. (OKLO)
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.12-5.83%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEUtilitiesIndependent Power ProducersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OKLO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Improve cash flow from operations | The company is improving cash flow, with cash used in operations down to $17.9 million in 2026-Q1. | Broken | Cash used in operations remains below -$10 million over next 4 quarters | Cash from operations: $-47.592M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Cash used in operations improves to > -$10 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-47,592,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 6, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is speculative growth, not an established earnings compounder: the business is investing in advanced nuclear power, fuel, recycling, and isotopes while operating at a loss. The long-term thesis is still developing, and the evidence snapshot assigns low overall confidence.
The snapshot provides no valuation multiple or peer comparison, so whether OKLO is cheap, fair, or expensive versus peers cannot be assessed from this evidence. Its pricing regime is described as Mania, but no fragility gates fired; the evidence does not specify what earnings or deployment expectations are already reflected.
Near term, losses and negative operating cash flow remain significant: both worsened from 2024-Q3 to 2026-Q2, despite management repeatedly naming cash flow and losses as priorities. Recent performance is weak, and the snapshot flags elevated risk of another earnings miss after consecutive misses. Management is adding organizational capacity, but the evidence shows mixed progress on deployment and execution.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on whether management can turn its development plans into execution while improving cash generation. Near-term sector support could strengthen if the Fed cuts rates or utility bellwethers keep beating and raising guidance; misses or lower guidance could remove that support. The snapshot also notes a terminated material agreement, but gives too little detail to assess its broader effect.
For the next 1 to 3 years, OKLO remains a high-risk development story with ambitious plans but worsening losses, weak recent results, and limited evidence of progress on cash generation. The thesis depends on execution and financing progress, while near-term indicators remain uncertain. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Control and reduce net income losses |
| Oklo is working to reduce its operating losses, which were $51.2 million in 2026-Q1. |
| Broken |
| Net loss remains below -$20 million over next 4 quarters |
Net income: $-48.536M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Net loss improves to > -$20 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-48,536,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Reduce operating losses toward break-even | Oklo is working to reduce its operating losses, which were $51.2 million in 2026-Q1. | Broken | Operating income remains below -$30 million over next 4 quarters | Operating income: $-73.19M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: Operating income improves to > -$30 million next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 7, 2026-73,190,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.83 → $-1.07 · observed estimates
$0.01B → $0.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.83 | $8,102,786 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.83 | $8,102,786 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.84 | $8,102,776 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.83 | $5,706,220 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.83 | $5,706,220 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.83 | $8,320,976 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.83 | $5,706,220 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.83 | $8,320,976 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.83 | $8,320,976 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.83 | $5,706,220 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.83 | $5,706,220 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.83 | $8,320,976 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.83 | $8,320,976 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.83 | $5,706,220 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.83 | $5,706,220 | 19 / 17 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.87 | $7,167,770 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.87 | $7,167,770 | 19 / 16 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.84 | $8,616,817 | 15 / 11 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-1.01 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-1.03 | $10,497,930 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-1.05 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-1.05 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-1.05 | $10,471,723 | 15 / 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-1.05 | $10,471,723 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-1.05 | $10,471,723 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-1.05 | $10,471,723 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-1.07 | $11,053,485 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-1.07 | $11,053,485 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-1.07 | $11,053,485 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-1.07 | $11,053,485 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-1.07 | $11,053,485 | 16 / 13 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-1.08 | $11,703,690 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-1.08 | $11,703,690 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-1.08 | $11,703,690 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-1.08 | $11,703,690 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-1.08 | $11,703,690 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-1.08 | $11,703,690 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-1.09 | $11,326,724 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-1.09 | $11,326,724 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-1.09 | $11,326,724 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-1.09 | $11,326,701 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-1.09 | $11,326,701 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-1.11 | $12,023,979 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-1.11 | $12,024,002 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-1.11 | $12,024,002 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-1.11 | $12,024,002 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-1.11 | $12,024,002 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 15 / 13 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-1.11 | $12,026,780 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-1.10 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-1.10 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-1.10 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-1.11 | $12,028,424 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-1.11 | $12,028,446 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-1.06 | $11,658,528 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-1.06 | $11,658,528 | 14 / 12 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-1.06 | $11,658,528 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-1.06 | $11,670,002 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-1.06 | $11,670,002 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-1.06 | $11,670,002 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-1.06 | $11,670,002 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-1.06 | $11,670,002 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-1.06 | $11,670,002 | 14 / 13 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-1.07 | $11,929,487 | 15 / 13 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 10 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 5 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.