Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ondas Inc (ONDS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.52-14.23%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ONDS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Manage equity and debt sales to support growth | A supporting condition in Ondas Inc's published investment case. The stated target is capital allocation supports growth without excessive dilution. | Under Pressure | capital sales cause large dilution or financial distress | Qualitative: 7.8M share resale + $33M acquisition vs growth support ONDS filed for 7.8M share resale and completed $33M acquisition, signaling potential dilution despite record revenue. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk growth and acquisition story, not yet a proven durable compounder. The long-term thesis is on watch: recent momentum improved, but weak financial performance and volatile execution leave the case unproven.
ONDS is valued at a sizable premium to peers, while the expectations gap is negative, meaning current expectations appear demanding relative to the evidence. The valuation model has low confidence, and the premium rests partly on future growth potential rather than established earnings strength.
Near term, revenue and backlog have grown sharply, and management raised its 2026 revenue target. However, the adjusted EBITDA loss widened in Q2, and recent financial performance remains weak relative to the industry; management’s profitability timelines point to improvement later, with OAS targeted for Q1 2027 and company-wide adjusted EBITDA profitability for Q1 2028.
The multi-year thesis depends on whether revenue and backlog growth continue while acquisitions expand the business without weakening execution. A guidance reversal after the recent increase would damage credibility, while lower interest rates or stabilization among technology peers could ease near-term sector pressure.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, ONDS offers a growth case with improving momentum but substantial execution and valuation risks. The central test is whether growth translates into better operating leverage and profitability. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Stated in 2 of 2 supplied quarters. Management reported: ““Our balance sheet and capital position remain strong and continue to provide significant competitive advantages.” “· The Company ended the second quarter with $1.4 billion in cash, cash equivalents, restricted cash and short-term investments.”
Achieve high-single digit EBITDA margin by 2027 | A primary condition in Ondas Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=9% EBITDA margin. | Improving | EBITDA margin remains negative or below 5% in 2027 | EBITDA margin: -225.24% FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=9% EBITDA margin. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 2026-225.242324 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Gross profit improves with revenue and efficiency | The company improved gross profit to $24.7M in 2026-Q1. | Improving | gross profit falls below $15M next year | Gross profit: $36.131M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: gross profit increases or stays above $24M next 4 quarters. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202636,131,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Ondas revenue grows to at least $525M in 2026 | A primary condition in Ondas Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=525 USD_MILLIONS. | Intact | revenue falls below $300M in 2026 | Revenue: $83.772M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=525 USD_MILLIONS. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 13, 202683,772,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.17 → $-0.33 · observed estimates
$0.96B → $1.01B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.03 | $981,364,170 | 1 / 7 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.04 | $984,056,150 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.04 | $984,056,150 | 2 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.17 | $955,865,250 | 3 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.33 | $1,006,792,767 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.33 | $1,012,617,090 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.33 | $1,012,616,590 | 3 / 7 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Nov 12, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.