Ondas Inc (ONDS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
$5.27-8.98%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONDS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 67.7% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 32.3 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 7 industry peers
ONDS — capital allocation — Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities
Dated 2026-09-23
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The disclosure included in
Why it matters: The Q2 loss rose as Ondas invested ahead of sales growth. A smaller loss would show better cost control as sales scale.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is under $50.6 million. Ondas keeps its OAS profitability goal for 2027-Q1.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA loss is $50.6 million or more. Ondas delays its OAS profitability goal past 2027-Q1.
Why it matters: Ondas raised its 2026 revenue target after Q2 growth. Q3 results will show whether sales keep pace.
Supportive ifOn November 12, Ondas reports Q3 revenue that keeps its full-year outlook at $525–$550 million.
Worry ifOndas cuts its $525–$550 million full-year revenue outlook or reports Q3 revenue below its stated ramp plan.
Why it matters: DZYNE and Cyberhawk closed in Q3. Sales from both would test whether the new businesses add to Ondas' growth.
Watch forQ3 results name revenue contributions from DZYNE and Cyberhawk and keep or raise the $525–$550 million 2026 outlook.
Also watch forQ3 results show little or no revenue from DZYNE and Cyberhawk, and Ondas cuts its 2026 outlook.
Why it matters: The new Ondas-Palantir venture aims to serve defense users with AI they control. Accreditation is a clear early test.
Supportive ifRegna AI announces IL4/5 approval within the stated goal of weeks after launch.
Worry ifRegna AI has no IL4/5 approval and reports no approved deployment months after launch.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$278 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,007 loss on $10,000 · 10.1% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,238 loss on $10,000 · 62.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: New orders help show if customer demand is still turning into future work. Q2 brought $175 million in orders.
Supportive ifQ3 results show backlog above $613 million, with new orders added beyond the $105 million reported by August 10.
Worry ifQ3 backlog falls below $613 million or order intake trails the $105 million reported by August 10.