Ondas Inc (ONDS)
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
$7.62-0.13%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQInformation TechnologyCommunication EquipmentSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ONDS
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 95.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 100.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 4.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 22 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ONDS — capital allocation — Unregistered
Dated 2026-08-28
Unregistered Sales of Equity Securities. The disclosure included in
Why it matters: Better operating income is important for making more money. It shows management is keeping costs down.
Supportive ifOperating income improves to less than negative $30M in Q3.
Worry ifOperating income worsens to more than negative $50M in Q3.
Why it matters: Management aims for positive EBITDA margins by 2027. This will show if the company is improving its cost structure.
Supportive ifEBITDA margin is now positive. This shows good cost management.
Worry ifEBITDA margin is still negative. This means cost challenges continue.
Why it matters: Continued growth in gross profit shows the company is scaling well. This is crucial for future profitability.
Supportive ifGross profit increases to over $30M in Q2 2026.
Worry ifGross profit declines or stays below $24M in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is a top priority for Ondas. Strong growth signals business health.
Supportive ifRevenue growth reported above 10% year over year in Q2.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below 5% year over year in Q2.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$396 on $10,000 · ±4.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $1,055 loss on $10,000 · 10.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,343 loss on $10,000 · 53.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A growing backlog shows strong demand. It also shows good integration of recent acquisitions.
Supportive ifBacklog is over $800 million. This confirms strong order capture.
Worry ifBacklog is below $700 million. This shows possible issues with order flow.
Why it matters: Recent acquisitions may increase revenue. Success would help management's growth plan.
Supportive ifRevenue from High Point UAS and Omnisys exceeds $20M in Q2.
Worry ifRevenue from these acquisitions falls below $10M in Q2.
Why it matters: An increase in backlog shows strong orders. It also shows future revenue is clear.
Supportive ifPro forma backlog reported above $800 million by the end of Q3 2026.
Worry ifBacklog does not go over $757 million. This suggests there may be order issues.
Why it matters: Acquisitions can boost revenue and expand market reach. They signal management's commitment to growth.
Supportive ifThey announced another acquisition. It will add over $20M in annual revenue.
Worry ifNo new acquisitions announced by the end of Q3 2026.
Why it matters: If Q3 revenue exceeds $100 million, it shows strong growth and supports management's plans.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue above $100 million shows strong demand and good execution.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue below $90 million suggests slower growth.