Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Option Care Health (OPCH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$31.50-0.47%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.08 → 2.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 8 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPCH yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
EPS reaches at least $1.87 in FY26 | A primary condition in Option Care Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=1.87 USD per share. | Under Pressure | EPS falls below $1.75 in FY26 | Diluted EPS: $0.38 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=1.87 USD per share. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20260.38 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a healthcare business with recent operating strength, but elevated risk and fragile earnings quality make the thesis less dependable than a steady compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, though management’s progress on growth and cash flow remains mixed.
The valuation model says OPCH is cheap versus peers, while the expectations gap is close to neutral and the overall priced-in assessment is justified. Valuation has fallen notably, but the evidence does not show that the market assumes a full recovery or a severe deterioration.
Near term, revenue growth has picked up between the first and second quarters, and recent earnings reports were positive. However, full-year revenue and cash-flow guidance were lowered, so the multi-year growth and cash-flow trajectory is not yet clear. A guidance cut on the next call is a key risk, despite the current near-term miss assessment being quiet.
The thesis depends on revenue growth continuing to reaccelerate and cash flow improving without further cuts to annual expectations. Weaker jobs data could raise recession concerns for cyclical healthcare businesses, while continued strong results and guidance from sector bellwethers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next one to three years, OPCH has a supportive sector backdrop and strong recent performance, but the thesis still hinges on steadier execution and better cash-flow progress. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Management targets EPS around $1.87 in 2026 and free cash flow above $320 million. |
| Broken |
| Free cash flow falls below $250 million in FY26 |
Free cash flow: $174.549M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=320 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Jul 29, 2026174,549,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 1 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Updated Full Year 2026 Financial Guidance For the full year 2026, Option Care Health now expects to generate: · Net revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion · Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.82 to $1.92 · Adjusted EBITDA of $480 million to $505 million · Cash provided by operating activities of at least $320 million Conference Call Option Care Health will host a conference call to discuss its results on Thursday, April 30, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.” “Total count includes a small number of st and - alone pharmacies.” Operating cash flow was $-12.110 million in 2026-Q1. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
No further key officer departures | A supporting condition in Option Care Health's published investment case. The stated target is No major officer departures in next 4 quarters. | Under Pressure | Departure of another C-suite officer within next 4 quarters | 1 C-suite departure (Chief Growth Officer) vs 0 allowed Form 8-K filed May 5, 2026, confirms departure of Chief Growth Officer Christopher L. Grashoff. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows at least 5% in FY26 | A primary condition in Option Care Health's published investment case. The stated target is >=5% YoY. | Broken | YoY revenue growth falls below 3% in FY26 | Revenue growth: 4.08% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5% YoY. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 4, 20264.077516 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 4 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Updated Full Year 2026 Financial Guidance For the full year 2026, Option Care Health now expects to generate: · Net revenue of $5.675 billion to $5.775 billion · Adjusted diluted earnings per share of $1.82 to $1.92 · Adjusted EBITDA of $480 million to $505 million · Cash provided by operating activities of at least $320 million Conference Call Option Care Health will host a conference call to discuss its results on Thursday, April 30, 2026, at 8:30 a.m.” “Rademacher, Chief Executive Officer, commented, “I’m proud of our team as we delivered strong second quarter results, reflecting solid operational execution and the positive impact of our 2026 strategic initiatives.” Revenue was $1.494 billion in 2026-Q3. Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.04 → $2.08 · observed estimates
$6.11B → $6.13B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.04 | $6,112,618,670 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.05 | $6,112,582,515 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.04 | $6,112,618,670 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.04 | $6,112,618,670 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.04 | $6,112,618,670 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.04 | $6,112,618,670 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.05 | $6,107,918,310 | 10 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.07 | $6,133,044,483 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.07 | $6,133,044,483 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.07 | $6,134,119,020 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.07 | $6,134,119,020 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.07 | $6,134,119,020 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.07 | $6,134,149,791 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.07 | $6,134,149,791 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.08 | $6,130,204,250 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.08 | $6,130,204,250 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.08 | $6,133,232,700 | 11 / 13 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.08 | $6,130,235,022 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.08 | $6,133,276,156 | 8 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.08 | $6,126,148,275 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.08 | $6,126,256,191 | 8 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 11 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
2 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.