Option Care Health (OPCH)
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
$24.21-1.02%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPCH
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -13.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 6.8% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 26 industry peers
OPCH — officer change
Dated 2026-05-05
Chief Growth Officer — Christopher L. Grashoff: Mr. Grashoff is departing from his role as Chief Growth Officer.
Why it matters: Filling this job could change the company's plans and growth efforts.
Watch forAnnouncement of a new Chief Growth Officer with a strong background in healthcare.
Also watch forNo appointment is made, leading to uncertainty in growth strategy.
Why it matters: A big drop in operating income shows financial health is getting worse. It also shows management is having trouble making more money.
Worry ifOperating income drops more than 20% from Q1.
Less concerning ifOperating income drops less than 20% or gets better from Q1.
Why it matters: Ongoing share buybacks show management is committed to smart spending.
Supportive ifShare buybacks are expected to be over $150 million next quarter.
Worry ifShare buybacks are expected to be under $150 million next quarter.
Why it matters: If it goes over $120 million, it shows profit is recovering after a Q1 drop.
Supportive ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is more than $120 million.
Worry ifQ2 adjusted EBITDA is $120 million or lower.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$146 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $322 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,665 loss on $10,000 · 46.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Improving cash flow is crucial for funding growth initiatives. It shows the company is managing its finances better.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is up from last quarter.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is flat or down from last quarter.
Why it matters: If growth is over 2%, it shows revenue is getting better after a mixed Q1.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth exceeds 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth is 2% or lower year over year.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means the company is doing well. It shows strong finances.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is now positive, over $0.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is still negative. This shows ongoing money problems.
Why it matters: Positive cash flow means better operations after negative cash flow in Q1.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations turns positive in Q2.
Worry ifCash flow from operations remains negative in Q2.
Why it matters: A new appointment could signal a strategic shift to enhance growth after the recent departure.
Supportive ifA new Chief Growth Officer is announced.
Worry ifNo new Chief Growth Officer is appointed within the next quarter.
Why it matters: This growth shows if management can increase revenue after mixed results.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue growth reported above 2% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue growth reported below 2% year over year.
Why it matters: This growth shows how much operations are getting better and how well management is doing.
Supportive ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be over 5% compared to last year.
Worry ifQ3 adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be under 5% compared to last year.
Why it matters: This cash flow target shows that management is getting better at being efficient.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations reported at or above $320 million for 2026.
Worry ifCash flow from operations reported below $320 million for 2026.