OPENLANE, Inc. (OPLN)
NYSEIndustrialsAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$35.46+1.60%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEIndustrialsAuto - DealershipsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPLN
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -26.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 36.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 14 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OPLN — debt issuance
Dated 2026-08-13
Other Events. On August 11, 2026, Ignition Acquisition Holdings LP (the “Selling Stockholder”), a fund advised by Apax Partners, L.P., launched and priced its registered public secondary offering (the “Offering”) of 8,000,000 shares of common stock, par value $0.01 per share (the “Common Stock”), of OPENLANE, Inc. (the “Company”). The closing of the Offering with respect to the 8,000,000 shares occurred on August 13, 2026, with gross proceeds to the Selling Stockholder of approximately $274.9…
Why it matters: Growing cash flow shows good financial health. It helps fund operations and investments.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations is over $60 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operating activities falls below $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Keeping this level shows strong operations and good cash flow.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations was above $150 million.
Worry ifCash flow from operations was below $130 million.
Why it matters: More dealer volume growth shows strong market demand and good competition.
Supportive ifMarketplace dealer volume growth was above 10% year over year.
Worry ifMarketplace dealer volume growth was below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More cash from operations shows better financial health. This could support future investments and growth.
Supportive ifManagement reports a big rise in cash from operations since last quarter.
Worry ifCash from operating activities stays the same or falls since last quarter.
Why it matters: Slower cash flow growth may mean there are operational problems or less efficiency.
Worry ifCash flow from operations growth reported below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations growth reported at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: The debt issuance could affect liquidity and future growth investments.
Watch forThe market reacts well to the debt issuance. It also likes the better liquidity.
Also watch forThe market reacts negatively due to worries about debt levels.
Why it matters: This growth rate is key to maintaining momentum in OPENLANE's marketplace strategy. A drop below this level could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifMarketplace vehicle sales grew less than 25% from last year.
Less concerning ifMarketplace vehicle sales grew more than 25% from last year.
Why it matters: If the sector's revenue growth speeds up, it could help OPENLANE's performance. This could signal a better market environment.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth is getting closer to 10% each year.
Worry ifSector revenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: GMV growth is a key indicator of marketplace health. Slower growth could signal weakening demand or competitive pressures.
Worry ifMarketplace GMV growth falls below 30% year over year.
Less concerning ifMarketplace GMV growth remains at or above 30% year over year.
Why it matters: Higher EBITDA guidance shows strong performance. It also shows confidence in future growth.
Supportive ifManagement raises the 2026 EBITDA guidance. It is now over $400 million.
Worry ifManagement keeps or lowers the 2026 EBITDA guidance. It is now below $385 million.
Why it matters: If growth is higher, it shows strong demand and good operations.
Supportive ifQ2 revenue growth reported above 15% YoY.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 10% YoY.
Why it matters: Changes in EPS guidance show how management views profits and growth.
Watch forManagement raises adjusted EPS guidance to more than $1.50.
Also watch forManagement lowers adjusted EPS guidance to less than $1.40.
Why it matters: Falling cash flow might show problems and impact future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations is reported below $50 million.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations stays above $50 million.
Why it matters: Higher net income per share guidance shows strong profits and management trust.
Supportive ifManagement raises net income per share guidance above $1.33.
Worry ifManagement keeps net income per share guidance at or below $1.23.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$159 on $10,000 · ±1.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $277 loss on $10,000 · 2.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,214 loss on $10,000 · 22.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.