Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Oppenheimer Holdings Inc (OPY)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
$91.86+2.02%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.25 → 2.25 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OPY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve EPS of at least $4.21 in Q2 2026 | A primary condition in Oppenheimer Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is >=4.21 USD per share. | Broken | EPS falls below $4.21 in Q2 2026 | Diluted EPS: $0.47 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=4.21 USD per share. Target period ends 2026-06-30; this observation covers 2026-Q3. Oct 30, 20260.47 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a financial-services business with a mixed growth profile, not a clear durable compounder at present. The long-term thesis is in a watch state: recent performance is weak, momentum has declined, and the evidence on management execution is mixed.
OPY is described as expensive, with a 46% premium versus peers, even though the valuation divergence measure points to it being cheap relative to peers; these signals are in tension. The expectations gap is small at 0.03, and the evidence says only weak execution quality is reflected in the current pricing, not the full combination of expensive valuation, weak execution, and turbulence.
Near-term results are uncertain: third-quarter revenue and net income were lower than a year earlier, while Wealth Management revenue increased and Capital Markets revenue declined. Stock appreciation rights expense also rose despite the reduced-grant formula, and earnings surprises have been erratic and trending down. The next guidance update and expense control are important near-term tests.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on whether Wealth Management growth can offset weakness in Capital Markets and whether compensation expense becomes more controlled. Near term, a guidance cut or rate cuts are listed as risks, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
The 1-to-3-year picture is mixed but currently cautious: OPY has some business-line resilience, yet weak recent performance and fragile earnings quality leave execution as the central test. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Oppenheimer Holdings Inc's published investment case. The stated target is litigation settled by mid-2026. |
| Recovered |
| Litigation remains unresolved or new legal issues arise |
Litigation settled 2026-04-24 vs target 2026-06-30 April 2026 filing confirms settlement of Liberty Capital Group litigation, resolving the regulatory driver ahead of the June 2026 deadline. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain revenue growth near 16.5% in next 12 months | Analysts expect revenue growth near 16.5% next year. | Intact | Revenue growth falls below 16% YoY next year | Revenue growth: -10% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=16% YoY. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 30, 2026-9.997691 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain valuation discount to peers with PE below 24.04 | Its valuation is low compared to peers, suggesting potential upside. | Intact | PE rises above peer median of 24.04 without earnings growth | P/E (TTM): 8.88x As of 2026-11-04; trailing twelve months. The target timing and basis require a separate assessment. Nov 4, 20268.8776 ratio · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.25 → $2.25 · observed estimates
$0.90B → $0.90B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.25 | $902,202,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Monthly analyst history is unavailable.
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.