Oppenheimer Holdings Inc (OPY)
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$122.89-1.48%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsFinancial - Capital MarketsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OPY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -40.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 20.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 28 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
OPY — litigation filed
Dated 2026-04-27
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement On April 24, 2026, Oppenheimer & Co., Inc. (“Oppenheimer”), the principal operating subsidiary of Oppenheimer Holdings Inc. (the “Company”), reached an agreement to settle the previously disclosed litigation styled Liberty Capital Group, Individually and on Behalf of All Others Similarly Situated v. Oppenheimer Holdings Inc., Oppenheimer & Co. Inc., and Oppenheimer Asset Management Inc. , No. 1:25-cv04822-JSR which was filed in the United States Dist…
Why it matters: Settling this lawsuit could make finances clearer. It would lower uncertainty for investors.
Supportive ifA public announcement will confirm the settlement of the cash sweep lawsuit.
Worry ifMore delays or higher costs related to the cash sweep lawsuit.
Why it matters: Strong growth in investment banking revenue is key for overall company performance. It shows demand for services and market conditions.
Supportive ifInvestment banking revenue growth exceeds 50% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifInvestment banking revenue growth falls below 30% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: Resolving this lawsuit can affect finances and rules. It also impacts investor trust.
Watch forSettlement results in a reduction of legal expenses by at least $70 million.
Also watch forLegal costs from the cash sweep lawsuit rise above $70 million.
Why it matters: Changes in dividend policy can show how management sees financial health. It also shows spending.
Watch forThe Board announces a dividend increase from $0.20 per share.
Also watch forThe Board announces a dividend cut or maintains the dividend at $0.20 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$128 on $10,000 · ±1.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $320 loss on $10,000 · 3.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,122 loss on $10,000 · 21.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: AUM growth reflects client confidence and can drive future revenue from advisory fees. It indicates the firm's market position.
Supportive ifAUM reported above $54.1 billion for Q2 2026.
Worry ifAUM reported below $54.1 billion for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Assets under management (AUM) growth is key for advisory fee revenue. A slowdown could hurt earnings.
Worry ifAUM remains at or above $59.4 billion for the next quarter.
Less concerning ifAUM drops below $57 billion in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High revenue growth shows strong demand for services. It means the firm can take advantage of market conditions.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 revenue reported above $539 million, which is a 21% increase from Q1 2026.
Worry ifQ2 2026 revenue reported below $539 million.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth could signal a slowdown in Oppenheimer's core business. This would raise concerns about their growth trajectory.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth prints above 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue growth drops below 20% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth below median could signal weakening in the financial sector.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below its median.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median.
Why it matters: Meeting this EPS target shows the company can recover from its recent loss. It signals strong operational performance despite past challenges.
Supportive ifQ2 2026 adjusted EPS reported at or above $4.21.
Worry ifQ2 2026 adjusted EPS reported below $4.21.
Why it matters: Higher compensation costs may show problems with stock appreciation rights. This can hurt net income and margins.
Worry ifCompensation costs stay at or below $320 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCompensation costs go over $320 million in Q3.
Why it matters: Changes in the dividend may show how management feels about cash flow and finances.
Watch forAnnouncement of a rise in the quarterly dividend.
Also watch forAnnouncement of a decrease or pause in the quarterly dividend.
Why it matters: Higher compensation costs could hurt margins and lower net income.
Worry ifCompensation costs tied to stock appreciation rights are over $30 million in Q3.
Less concerning ifCompensation costs tied to stock appreciation rights are under $30 million in Q3.