Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
$4.96+3.55%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.04 → 0.97 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ORC yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain monthly dividend payout of $0.10 per share | Orchid Island Capital pays a steady monthly dividend of $0.10 per share. | Intact | monthly dividend falls below $0.10 per share | Dividend per share: $0.30 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $0.10 per share monthly dividend. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 20260.3 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
ORC is a rate-sensitive mortgage real estate company, so its results can shift with interest rates and the value of mortgage assets. The long-term thesis is insufficiently established, with medium confidence and mixed signals after recent results.
The valuation evidence points to ORC being cheap versus peers, with a meaningful expectations gap. The priced-in assessment is tagged unjustified, but fragility is low; this does not remove the business risks behind the discount.
Near term, results may remain difficult to read: Q3 moved from Q2 net income to a net loss, while reported liquidity and book value per share also declined. Management increased hedge coverage and duration and repurchased shares, but the evidence shows mixed delivery on risk management and the dividend was reduced from Q1 levels and stayed lower in Q2 and Q3.
Over the next year, Fed rate cuts could support rate-sensitive real estate businesses, while weaker results or guidance from sector peers could remove that support. ORC’s own next guidance and its ability to manage interest-rate risk, liquidity, and dividend distributions are key swing factors.
For a 1 to 3 year view, ORC combines a low valuation versus peers with substantial recent financial strain and mixed execution. The thesis depends on steadier results and risk management, alongside a supportive rate and sector backdrop. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit expectations for 2026 are improving with EPS forecast around $1.43. |
| Broken |
| EPS falls below $1.0 for FY 2026 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.90 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $1.43 EPS for FY 2026. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 23, 2026-0.9 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Sustain or grow revenue above $157.8 million quarterly | A primary condition in Orchid Island Capital, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $157.8 million quarterly revenue. | Broken | quarterly revenue falls below $132 million | Revenue: $164.12M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $157.8 million quarterly revenue. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 23, 2026164,120,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete announced buyback of up to 25 million shares | The company announced a buyback program adding 25 million shares. | Intact | Buyback program is canceled or materially reduced | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate Share repurchases from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.08 → $0.97 · observed estimates
$0.30B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.08 | $296,261,500 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.12 | $292,630,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.12 | $292,630,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.05 | $292,630,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.05 | $292,630,000 | 3 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.09 | $257,272,600 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.03 | $271,445,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.04 | $278,278,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.99 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.93 | $263,533,500 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.98 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.98 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.98 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.98 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.98 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.98 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.98 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.97 | $265,462,000 | 4 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.