Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.55+0.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORC
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $6.55 ORC trades at 13× p/e — 1.3× the 9.7× p/e peer median. The market is re-rating it beyond its own range; our $11 fair value is medium-confidence here. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $45.44 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $49.49 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | medium |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $28.81 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| graham number | 12M | $9.07 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Around the middle on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2021-Q1, 2021-Q2, 2021-Q3, 2022-Q3
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $8.35 |
| 8.1 |
| 1.03 |
| TTM |
| medium |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $4.95 | 1.8 | 2.80 | TTM | medium |
| PEG | 12M | $3.75 | 7.4 | 0.51 | TTM | medium |
| residual income | 12M | $7.09 | — | — | TTM | medium |
| triangulated | 12M | $5.07 | 9.7 | 0.52 | Triangulated | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $12.70 | 8.1 | 1.56 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | low |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $1.00 | 1.8 | 0.57 | Analyst | low |
| PEG | 3Y | $3.00 | 7.4 | 0.41 | Analyst | low |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $16.80 | 8.1 | 2.07 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $1.04 | 7.4 | 0.14 | Analyst | medium |