Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
$4.99+0.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -20.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -52.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 31.3 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 25 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ORC — earnings in line
Dated 2026-10-22
Results of Operations and Financial Condition,” and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be deemed incorporated by reference in any disclosure document of the Company, except as shall be expressly set forth by specific reference in such document. Caution About Forward-Looking Statements. This Current Report on Form 8-K contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of…
Why it matters: Q3 losses on mortgage assets and hedges drove a $0.90 per-share net loss. Larger losses would show that the risk plan did not prevent further damage.
Worry ifQ4 net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and hedges exceed $1.17 per share.
Less concerning ifQ4 net realized and unrealized losses on RMBS and hedges are below $1.17 per share.
Why it matters: ORC said slow prepayments can support income from its below-par mortgage assets. A higher prepayment rate could weaken that support.
Worry ifQ4 three-month CPR rises above 8.4%.
Less concerning ifQ4 three-month CPR stays at or below 8.4%.
Why it matters: Book value fell to $6.02 in Q3 as rates rose and mortgage assets lost value. A rebound would support management's recovery plan.
Supportive ifA later quarterly report shows book value per share above $6.02.
Worry ifA later quarterly report shows book value per share below $6.02.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $233 loss on $10,000 · 2.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,830 loss on $10,000 · 38.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.