Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (ORC)
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
$6.55+0.46%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - MortgageSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORC
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -41.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -41.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and real (inflation-adjusted) rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has been missing across recent quarters and operates in a high-miss-rate industry. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 33 industry peers
ORC — dividend update
Dated 2026-08-12
Other Events. On August 12, 2026, Orchid Island Capital, Inc. (the "Company") announced that the Board of Directors of the Company declared a dividend for the month of August 2026 of $0.10 per share of the Company's common stock, to be paid on September 29, 2026 to holders of record on August 31, 2026, with an ex-dividend date of August 31, 2026. In addition, the Company announced certain details of its RMBS portfolio as of July 31, 2026, as well as certain other information regarding the Com…
Why it matters: Share buybacks can help stock prices. They also show management's trust in the company.
Supportive ifThe company buys back shares from the total of 26,612,580 shares.
Worry ifNo shares are repurchased or the buyback program is suspended.
Why it matters: A rise in book value per share shows better management of assets and financial strength.
Supportive ifThe company reports a book value per share above $7.22 for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company reports a book value per share below $7.22 for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: Changes in book value reflect the company's financial health and investment performance. This is vital for REITs.
Supportive ifBook value per share increases above $7.22.
Worry ifBook value per share decreases below $7.22.
Why it matters: The earnings report will show if Orchid can maintain its dividend and manage its RMBS portfolio.
Watch forEarnings report shows net income per share of $0.44 or higher.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net income per share below $0.44.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$87 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $190 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,748 loss on $10,000 · 17.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Changes in book value will indicate how well Orchid is managing its RMBS portfolio.
Watch forBook value per share increases from $7.22 in Q2.
Also watch forBook value per share decreases from $7.22 in Q2.
Why it matters: Changes in interest rates can change how much the company pays to borrow money. This can affect the results of its RMBS portfolio.
Watch forThe FOMC announces a rate cut or maintains rates at the current level.
Also watch forThe FOMC announces a rate hike.
Why it matters: Updates on the share buyback program can signal management's confidence in the stock. Increased buybacks can support share price.
Supportive ifThe company will increase the share repurchase limit to more than 26,612,580 shares.
Worry ifThere is no news about increasing the share repurchase limit.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's recovery. Strong growth signals better performance.
Supportive ifRevenue increases above $157.8 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifRevenue falls below $157.8 million in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is crucial for the company's future. A rebound indicates stronger demand.
Supportive ifRevenue growth speeds up again, reaching over 5% year over year.
Worry ifRevenue growth remains below 5% year over year.
Why it matters: Changes in dividends show how well a company is doing. They can also change how investors feel.
Watch forThe monthly dividend stays at $0.30 or goes up.
Also watch forThe monthly dividend goes down from $0.30.
Why it matters: Regular dividend payments show the company values its shareholders. A change may mean money problems.
Supportive ifThe company declares a dividend of at least $0.30 per share for Q3 2026.
Worry ifThe company reduces the dividend payment below $0.30 per share for Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The dividend announcement shows if the company can maintain its cash distributions. This is key for REITs.
Supportive ifThe company announces a dividend of $0.10 per share or higher.
Worry ifThe company announces a dividend lower than $0.10 per share.