NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-07-07
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 9 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $141.60. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $142 ORCL trades at 19× p/e, below its 38× p/e peer median, but our blended $140 fair value is roughly in line with the price. We hold it with low confidence: our number sits below the analyst range and the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $160–$325. Note: our $140 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($160–$325). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $192 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$160.00 – $325.00 (median $240.00) · 27 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
No fragility gates fired. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 192% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 3.6 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $2.74/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $243.00 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| graham number | 12M | $49.31 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $79.72 | 38.0 | 2.10 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $277.50 | 38.0 | 7.31 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $77.76 | 3.4 | 23.13 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $104.58 | 14.3 | 7.31 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $36.85 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $171.53 | 23.5 | 7.31 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $280.25 | 38.0 | 7.38 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $150.34 | 38.0 | 3.96 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $78.07 | 38.0 | 2.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $28.30 | 3.4 | 8.42 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $29.42 | 14.3 | 2.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $48.26 | 23.5 | 2.06 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $229.49 | 38.0 | 6.05 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
