Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
$115.06-7.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -21.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| 48.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 24 industry peers
ORCL — dividend update
Dated 2026-09-10
O ther Events Oracle announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $1,625 per share of our outstanding Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock and $0.50 per share of our outstanding common stock. The Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock dividend is payable on October 15, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on October 1, 2026 and the common stock dividend is payable on October 23, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on Octobe…
Why it matters: Oracle set a $20 billion limit on new funding through FY30. More funding could add pressure to its cash and debt plans.
Worry ifOracle reports up to $20 billion in new equity and gross debt through FY30. This excludes debt refinancing.
Less concerning ifOracle raises over $20 billion in new equity and gross debt through FY30. This excludes debt refinancing.
Why it matters: The FY30 target calls for more than 35% yearly growth from FY26. A lower target would weaken the growth plan.
Worry ifAt the next outlook update, Oracle keeps its FY30 revenue target at $225 billion or more.
Less concerning ifOracle cuts its FY30 revenue target below $225 billion.
Why it matters: Oracle reported negative $5 billion in Q1 as it built cloud capacity. More negative cash flow would test its plan for positive cash flow in FY28.
Worry ifOracle reports negative free cash flow in Q2 FY27.
Less concerning ifOracle reports positive free cash flow in Q2 FY27.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$278 on $10,000 · ±2.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $601 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,378 loss on $10,000 · 53.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.