Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$158.78+3.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORCL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -2.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 52.4% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 55.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 69 industry peers
ORCL — dividend update
Dated 2026-06-10
O ther Events Oracle announced that its Board of Directors has declared a cash dividend of $1,625 per share of our outstanding Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock and $0.50 per share of our outstanding common stock. The Mandatory Convertible Preferred Stock dividend is payable on July 15, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on July 1, 2026 and the common stock dividend is payable on July 24, 2026 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on July 10, 2026.…
Why it matters: New AI contracts can greatly increase income. This shows Oracle's role in the growing AI field.
Watch forRevenue growth from AI contracts exceeds 40% year over year.
Also watch forRevenue growth from AI contracts is below 40% year over year.
Why it matters: Achieving $67B in revenue is a major goal. Confirmation signals strong performance.
Supportive ifManagement confirms FY26 revenue guidance of $67B during the next earnings call.
Worry ifManagement revises FY26 revenue guidance down from $67B.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial plans. Watching these changes can show Oracle's future investment plans.
Watch forPositive changes in financial plans or guidance after the CFO change.
Also watch forNo clear changes in financial plans or guidance after the CFO change.
Why it matters: More people are using AI services. This shows high demand and growth in Oracle's cloud.
Supportive ifAI cloud service adoption grew more than 50% from last year.
Worry ifAI cloud service adoption grew less than 30% from last year.
Why it matters: New AI contracts can significantly boost revenue and validate Oracle's cloud strategy. They show demand for AI services.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new AI contract worth over $5 billion.
Worry ifNo new significant AI contracts announced in the next quarter.
Why it matters: High capital spending is crucial for cloud infrastructure growth. Exceeding this may raise concerns.
Worry ifCapital spending in FY26 is at or below $50 billion.
Less concerning ifCapital spending in FY26 is over $50 billion.
Why it matters: Cloud revenue growth is key to Oracle's overall growth strategy. A strong rate supports future targets.
Supportive ifCloud revenue growth rate exceeds 30% year over year in Q4.
Worry ifCloud revenue growth rate falls below 20% year over year in Q4.
Why it matters: Changes in how money is spent can affect returns for shareholders. This can change how investors see Oracle's financial health.
Watch forOracle starts a new share buyback program or increases dividends.
Also watch forOracle cuts dividends or halts buybacks.
Why it matters: Good guidance for cloud revenue growth shows that people still want Oracle's cloud services.
Supportive ifCloud revenue growth guidance between 57% and 63% in constant currency.
Worry ifCloud revenue growth guidance below 57% in constant currency.
Why it matters: An increase would show confidence in cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns.
Supportive ifOracle says it will raise the quarterly dividend to more than $0.50 per share.
Worry ifOracle maintains the dividend at $0.50 per share without an increase.
Why it matters: RPO growth indicates future revenue potential and demand for Oracle's cloud services. Strong growth supports the AI strategy.
Supportive ifRPO grows to over $638 billion, driven by large AI contracts.
Worry ifRPO growth slows to below $553 billion.
Why it matters: Earnings per share is a key measure of profitability. A lower EPS may indicate financial stress.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS is reported below $1.71 for Q1 FY 2027.
Less concerning ifNon-GAAP EPS is reported at $1.71 or higher for Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: A new CFO can change financial strategy and guidance. This could affect investor confidence.
Watch forCFO Hilary Maxson gives positive news or updates in the next earnings call.
Also watch forCFO Maxson does not discuss key financial goals or gives negative news.
Why it matters: This growth rate is a key indicator of Oracle's cloud demand. A miss could signal weakening demand.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth below 27% in Q1 FY 2027.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth meets or exceeds 29% in Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: AI cloud revenue growth shows Oracle can succeed in the AI market. A miss may show competition problems.
Worry ifAI cloud revenue growth below 57% in Q1 FY 2027.
Less concerning ifAI cloud revenue growth meets or exceeds 63% in Q1 FY 2027.
Why it matters: An increase would signal strong cash flow and commitment to shareholder returns. It reflects confidence in future earnings.
Supportive ifThey announced a higher quarterly dividend of more than $0.50 per share.
Worry ifNo increase in the quarterly dividend from $0.50 per share.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$267 on $10,000 · ±2.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $592 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,470 loss on $10,000 · 64.7% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.