Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
$158.78+3.08%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Primary pillar under pressure — Grow Cloud Revenue to $9.9B by Q4 FY26: Cloud revenue not reported; total rev +21.0% vs $9.9B target.
Oracle grows cloud revenue fast, up 60% in last year. Revenue hit $67 billion in FY26 and guidance rose to $90 billion for FY27. The company expands AI cloud infrastructure with 211 datacenters. Profit beats and strong backlog show solid execution.
Oracle faces risks from high capital spending and debt concerns. AI revenue timing is uncertain and layoffs may slow growth. Legal and worker safety issues could hurt datacenter expansion. Recent sharp stock selloff reflects these worries.
The price is about 1% above our fair value near $140, reflecting roughly 41% revenue growth expected by analysts. Our fair value is well below the Street median, showing a more cautious view on growth and risks.
Breaks if: datacenter regions fail to reach 211 by Q4 FY26
Breaks if: Capex deviates significantly from $50B in FY26
Breaks if: cloud revenue falls below $6.2B (2025-Q3 level) next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on cloud services and AI. The current thesis state is intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and ongoing management priorities.
Valuation is considered cheap compared to peers, with a notable expectations gap. The market seems to have priced in a justified valuation, reflecting a low fragility tier.
Fundamentals are likely to continue benefiting from strong cloud revenue growth and a significant increase in Remaining Performance Obligations. However, there is an elevated risk due to potential guidance cuts and mixed delivery on shareholder returns.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain growth in cloud services, the potential for favorable macroeconomic conditions like Fed rate cuts, and the performance of sector peers. Any guidance changes in upcoming calls could significantly impact sentiment.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Mixed, the news cuts both ways. Oracle received a warrant to purchase 4.2 million shares of HPE at a nominal price, indicating potential growth in its equity stake. However, the company faces pressure to grow cloud revenue, as it did not report the expected figures.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: FY27 revenue guidance falls below $67B
Overall, Oracle's position in the cloud market and strong financials support a cautious long-term view. Not investment advice.