Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
Oracle Corporation (ORCL)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
$115.06-7.01%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - InfrastructureSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.02 → 11.09 EPS · FY ending May 31, 2028 · 23 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 24 to 23; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ORCL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
4 published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Expand to 211 Datacenter Regions by Q4 FY26 | The company expands AI cloud infrastructure with 211 datacenters. | Intact | datacenter regions fail to reach 211 by Q4 FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-05-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a large-company cloud growth thesis, with recent financial performance described as strong and earnings quality as robust. The thesis is intact, but management is rated volatile and overall risk is elevated, so continued delivery matters.
The evidence describes Oracle as cheap versus peers, while also showing a 0.57 premium versus peers and a negative expectations gap of -0.58. Pricing is tagged as justified, with low fragility; valuation has fallen by 12.3 points, but the evidence does not specify exactly what growth the market assumes.
Near-term results have been strong, with earnings beats in June and September 2026. Cloud revenue and the AI-driven backlog grew substantially, in line with management’s stated priorities, though a guidance cut on the next call is a meaningful risk. Dividend payments have been steady, while the dividend priority is rated mixed.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis hinges on cloud growth and large AI contracts continuing to support revenue and the backlog. A guidance cut would weaken the near-term setup, while rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from major technology peers could improve the sector backdrop.
For the next one to three years, Oracle’s long-term thesis rests on converting strong cloud and AI backlog growth into ongoing financial performance, with execution and elevated risk as key checks. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Oracle Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is ~$50B. |
| Under Pressure |
| Capex deviates significantly from $50B in FY26 |
Capital expenditures: $28.499B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: ~$50B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 11, 202628,499,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow Cloud Revenue to $9.9B by Q4 FY26 | A primary condition in Oracle Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $9.9B. | Under Pressure | cloud revenue falls below $6.2B (2025-Q3 level) next year | Cloud revenue: $11.607B FY2027-Q1; reported segment. Published target: >= $9.9B. The stored target says 2026-Q4; this source reports FY2027-Q1. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Sep 11, 202611,607,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve $90B Revenue in FY27 | A primary condition in Oracle Corporation's published investment case. The stated target is >= $90B. | Under Pressure | FY27 revenue guidance falls below $67B | Revenue: $19.345B FY2027-Q1; GAAP. Published target: >= $90B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Sep 11, 202619,345,000,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.89 → $11.09 · observed estimates
$130.47B → $131.50B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.89 | $130,470,286,890 | 40 / 40 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.89 | $130,470,661,890 | 40 / 40 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.91 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.92 | $130,400,428,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.94 | $130,502,297,388 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.95 | $130,534,419,446 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.95 | $130,534,419,446 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.95 | $130,534,419,446 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.95 | $130,534,419,446 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.95 | $130,534,419,446 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.95 | $130,534,431,832 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.95 | $130,534,431,832 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.00 | $130,553,982,850 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.00 | $130,553,982,850 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.00 | $130,553,982,850 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.00 | $130,553,983,288 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.00 | $130,553,968,403 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.99 | $130,553,984,438 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.02 | $130,657,341,361 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.02 | $131,192,729,228 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.02 | $131,209,800,777 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.02 | $131,209,800,777 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.00 | $131,183,316,552 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.01 | $131,476,331,551 | 24 / 31 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.01 | $131,466,356,552 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.01 | $131,466,356,552 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.01 | $131,466,356,552 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.02 | $131,426,726,002 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.02 | $131,426,725,010 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.02 | $131,426,725,010 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.02 | $131,426,711,721 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.02 | $131,426,711,721 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.02 | $131,426,711,721 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.02 | $131,426,717,127 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.02 | $131,426,717,127 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.02 | $131,426,717,127 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.02 | $131,426,717,127 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.02 | $131,426,717,127 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.02 | $131,426,728,775 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-13 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-14 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-15 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-16 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-17 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-18 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-19 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-20 | $11.02 | $131,427,404,451 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-21 | $11.02 | $131,493,434,119 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-22 | $11.02 | $131,493,447,633 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-23 | $11.02 | $131,493,437,814 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-24 | $11.02 | $131,493,437,814 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-25 | $11.02 | $131,493,437,814 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-26 | $11.02 | $131,493,437,814 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-27 | $11.02 | $131,493,437,814 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-28 | $11.02 | $131,266,995,269 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-29 | $11.02 | $131,325,288,007 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-30 | $11.04 | $131,368,498,197 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-10-31 | $11.07 | $131,354,903,097 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-11-01 | $11.07 | $131,354,903,097 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-11-02 | $11.07 | $131,354,903,097 | 24 / 30 |
| 2026-11-03 | $11.11 | $131,520,627,264 | 22 / 29 |
| 2026-11-04 | $11.09 | $131,498,578,034 | 23 / 29 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 35 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 5 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Dec 9, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earnings4 of 4 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.