Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Organogenesis Holdings, Inc. (ORGO)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
$0.84-3.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for ORGO yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Management maintains stable leadership and executes turnaround | The company has stable management and a strong product base. | Under Pressure | Significant management disruption or failure to execute turnaround | Qualitative: 2 consecutive earnings misses (Q1, Q2 2026) + lowered FY26 guidance Q1 and Q2 2026 earnings misses; FY26 revenue guidance lowered; ATM equity issuance. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a high-risk recovery story, not a proven durable compounder. The multi-year view is intact, but management has yet to show that revenue and market share can recover after steep declines.
The evidence describes ORGO as cheap versus peers, while also showing a small peer premium and low confidence in the valuation model. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations remain demanding relative to the evidence, even as the valuation is labeled justified and no fragility warning has fired.
Near term, losses and revenue pressure remain central: product revenue fell 58% year over year in each of the first two quarters of 2026, and management cut full-year revenue guidance twice. Lower operating expenses have not prevented operating losses from worsening, and recent earnings misses make the next quarter uncertain. Over the multi-year view, progress depends on measured revenue recovery, market-share gains, and evidence that the ReNu program and wider portfolio can add to results.
A key downside scenario is another guidance cut after the recent increase, which could weaken confidence in management’s outlook. Further weakening in jobs data could also weigh on cyclical healthcare businesses, while continued earnings strength and higher guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop. The evidence provides limited measurable milestones for ReNu, so its contribution remains uncertain.
For the next 1 to 3 years, ORGO’s long-term thesis rests on a difficult operating recovery, with cost control underway but revenue recovery and consistent execution still unproven. The thesis is intact, but the evidence is mixed and risk remains high. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Organogenesis Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is EPS loss narrows toward -$0.28 in 2027. |
| Improving |
| EPS loss worsens beyond -$0.82 in FY26 or -$0.28 in FY27 |
Diluted EPS: $-0.77 per share FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: EPS loss narrows toward -$0.28 in 2027. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 2026-0.77 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue reaches at least $270 million in 2026 | A primary condition in Organogenesis Holdings, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $270 million. | Broken | Revenue falls below $270 million in FY26 | Revenue: $43.755M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $270 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 6, 202643,755,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.28 → $-0.31 · observed estimates
$0.34B → $0.27B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.28 | $337,600,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.28 | $339,558,700 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.31 | $269,700,000 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.31 | $269,710,950 | 2 / 2 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 0 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.