Organogenesis Holdings, Inc. (ORGO)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
$0.84-3.46%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -83.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -36.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 46.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and is a smaller-cap name (higher miss base rate). A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers
ORGO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, the Company announced via press release its results for the fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1. The information in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exch…
Why it matters: Advanced Wound Care drove most of the sales drop. A rise from Q2 would support management's claim of market share gains.
Supportive ifA reported quarter shows Advanced Wound Care revenue above $36.1 million, the Q2 2026 level.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows Advanced Wound Care revenue at or below $36.1 million.
Why it matters: Management said Q3 and Q4 would improve in sequence, but at a slower pace. Q3 revenue tests that claim.
Supportive ifQ3 2026 revenue is above $42.8 million, the Q2 result, showing sequential growth.
Worry ifQ3 2026 revenue is $42.8 million or less, showing no sequential growth.
Why it matters: The company cut costs, but its Q2 adjusted EBITDA loss widened sharply. A larger loss would show cost cuts are not offsetting weak sales.
Worry ifA reported quarter shows an adjusted EBITDA loss of more than $34.4 million.
Less concerning ifA reported quarter shows an adjusted EBITDA loss of $34.4 million or less.
Why it matters: The August outlook cut the revenue range to $179 million–$215 million. Falling below its floor would show the downturn deepened further.
Worry ifFY2026 revenue is below $179 million, below the low end of the August outlook.
Less concerning ifFY2026 revenue is at least $179 million, within or above the August outlook range.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$265 on $10,000 · ±2.6% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $698 loss on $10,000 · 7.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $8,845 loss on $10,000 · 88.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.