Organogenesis Holdings, Inc. (ORGO)
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
$1.71+4.27%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQHealth CareDrug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORGO
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -67.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -32.9% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 34.2 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Elevated risk of a next-quarter earnings miss: this name has erratic recent earnings surprises and has been missing across recent quarters. A fundamental tilt, not a price call.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 23 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ORGO — earnings miss
Dated 2026-08-06
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On August 6, 2026, the Company announced via press release its results for the fiscal second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the Company’s press release is hereby furnished to the Commission and incorporated herein by reference as Exhibit 99.1. The information in the press release attached as Exhibit 99.1 is intended to be furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the “Exch…
Why it matters: This metric shows if the recovery in Advanced Wound Care is happening. A worse decline signals ongoing issues.
Worry ifQ3 Advanced Wound Care revenue declines more than 60% year over year.
Less concerning ifAdvanced Wound Care revenue declines less than 60% year over year.
Why it matters: Signs of market share recovery would back management's claims. This may improve investor sentiment.
Supportive ifManagement shows better market share in Q3.
Worry ifManagement reports no improvement or further loss of market share in Q3.
Why it matters: Updates on the ReNu program may show progress in growing products and market share.
Watch forManagement shares good news about the ReNu program during the Q3 earnings call.
Also watch forNo updates or bad news about the ReNu program during the Q3 earnings call.
Why it matters: Keeping costs down is important. Revenue drops have caused bigger operating losses.
Supportive ifOperating costs drop below $94.7 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifOperating costs go up or stay above $94.7 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: High operating expenses may show ongoing problems in controlling costs. This is true even with falling revenue.
Worry ifOperating costs are over $90 million for Q3.
Less concerning ifOperating costs fall below $90 million for Q3.
Why it matters: Higher operating income means better cost control. It also shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income improves from -$68.9 million in Q1 to less negative in Q2.
Worry ifOperating income worsens or remains at -$68.9 million or worse in Q2.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss would show progress in addressing financial challenges.
Supportive ifNet loss narrows from -$53.2 million in Q1 to less than -$50 million in Q2.
Worry ifNet loss stays at -$53.2 million or worsens in Q2.
Why it matters: Lower revenue guidance shows what management thinks and what the market expects.
Watch forManagement confirms total net revenue guidance of $270-$310 million during the Q2 call.
Also watch forManagement lowers revenue guidance to less than $270 million during the Q2 earnings call.
Why it matters: Increased R&D spending may indicate a commitment to product development. This could lead to future growth.
Supportive ifR&D expenses increase compared to Q2 2026.
Worry ifR&D expenses decrease compared to Q2 2026.
Why it matters: More revenue shows recovery from the big drops in Q1 and Q2.
Supportive ifQ3 net revenue shows a sequential increase from $42.8 million in Q2 2026.
Worry ifQ3 net revenue continues to decline or stays below $42.8 million.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide insights into revenue and loss trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth and reduced net loss.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows revenue is still falling and net loss is growing.
Why it matters: If guidance goes down, it shows a worse outlook. This may hurt investor confidence.
Worry ifManagement cuts revenue guidance for 2026 to less than $179 million.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises revenue guidance for 2026 to above $179 million.
Why it matters: Continued expense reduction is key to improving operating income. If expenses rise, it shows poor cost control.
Supportive ifOperating expenses decrease more than 10% year over year in Q3.
Worry ifOperating expenses increase or decrease less than 10% year over year in Q3.
Why it matters: The health care sector is maturing. If revenue growth picks up, it could benefit Organogenesis.
Supportive ifHealth care sector revenue growth speeds up to 10% or more.
Worry ifHealth care sector revenue growth continues to slow below current levels.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$204 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $665 loss on $10,000 · 6.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $7,508 loss on $10,000 · 75.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.