Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$43.13+1.58%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORRF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -5.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -8.0% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 2.4 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
ORRF — dividend update
Dated 2026-07-22
Regulation FD In connection with the press release announcing the Company’s quarterly earnings, the Company posted an investor presentation to its website at www.orrstown.com . A copy of the investor presentation is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.2, and is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference. The Board of Directors of the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.30 per common share, payable August 11, 2026 to shareholders of record as of August 4, 2026.
Why it matters: The new CEO's plans may affect future growth and how the company operates.
Watch forPositive news or plans from the new CEO Adam L. Metz.
Also watch forThere are negative comments. The direction is unclear after the leadership change.
Why it matters: A drop in nonaccrual loans shows better credit quality and risk management.
Supportive ifNonaccrual loans decrease below 0.58% of total loans in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNonaccrual loans increase above 0.58% of total loans in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The earnings report will provide updates on financial health and growth. This is key for investors.
Watch forThe earnings report shows better results than expected. This means strong performance.
Also watch forThe earnings report shows worse results than expected. This means weak performance.
Why it matters: Redeeming these notes helps manage debt and improve financial health. It shows the company's focus on capital.
Supportive ifThe company will pay back the $31M subordinated notes on June 30, 2026.
Worry ifThe company does not pay back the subordinated notes by the deadline.
Why it matters: If net income falls under $21 million, it shows financial problems. This may hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 net income reported below $21 million.
Less concerning ifQ3 net income stays above or equal to $21 million.
Why it matters: The $0.30 dividend shows a promise to return money. It gives investors confidence.
Supportive ifThe Board declares a cash dividend of $0.30 per share for Q3.
Worry ifThe Board does not declare a cash dividend of $0.30 per share for Q3.
Why it matters: A steady dividend shows good money management. It also shows care for shareholders.
Watch forThe Board declares a cash dividend of $0.30 per share as expected.
Also watch forThe Board does not declare the expected cash dividend of $0.30 per share.
Why it matters: Strong loan growth indicates demand and effective lending practices. Weak growth may signal issues in the market.
Supportive ifTotal loans increase by more than $50 million in Q3.
Worry ifTotal loans increase by less than $50 million in Q3.
Why it matters: A drop in the net interest margin shows possible problems with funding costs.
Worry ifNet interest margin falls below 3.87% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin stays the same or goes above 3.87% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A drop in revenue growth signals a slowdown in the financial sector. This could impact Orrstown's performance.
Worry ifRevenue growth falls below its median of 15% over the last three years.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains at or above the median of 15%.
Why it matters: A higher ratio may mean less cash available and possible funding problems.
Worry ifThe loan-to-deposit ratio was more than 90%.
Less concerning ifThe loan-to-deposit ratio is less than 90%.
Why it matters: If loan growth is less than 4%, it may show weak demand or credit problems.
Worry ifLoan growth rate reported below 4% for Q3.
Less concerning ifLoan growth rate stays at or above 4% for Q3.
Why it matters: If noninterest income is over $15 million, it shows strong fees and good variety.
Supportive ifNoninterest income was over $15 million for Q3.
Worry ifNoninterest income was below $15 million for Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $249 loss on $10,000 · 2.5% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,317 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.