Orrstown Financial Services, Inc. (ORRF)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$45.27+2.03%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · ORRF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 5.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -7.3% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 230 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
ORRF — dividend update
Dated 2026-10-21
Regulation FD In connection with the press release announcing the Company’s quarterly earnings, the Company posted an investor presentation to its website at www.orrstown.com . A copy of the investor presentation is furnished with this Form 8-K as Exhibit 99.2, and is incorporated herein in its entirety by reference. The Board of Directors of the Company declared a cash dividend of $0.30 per common share, payable November 10, 2026 to shareholders of record as of November 3, 2026.
Why it matters: The board declared the same $0.30 quarterly dividend in each supplied quarter. The payment tests that ongoing pattern.
Watch forThe company pays $0.30 per share on November 10 to holders of record on November 3.
Also watch forThe company delays, cuts, or cancels the declared $0.30 payment.
Why it matters: Loans grew 9% annualized in Q3. Keeping that pace would support core interest income.
Supportive ifQ4 loans grow at least 8% annualized from the Q3 balance, with growth in commercial loans or home equity lines.
Worry ifQ4 loan growth falls below 4% annualized or total loans shrink from the Q3 balance.
Why it matters: Q3 deposits fell while loans grew, and borrowings rose to $417.3 million. More borrowing can raise funding costs.
Worry ifQ4 deposits fall again. FHLB advances and other borrowings rise above the Q3 level of $417.3 million.
Less concerning ifQ4 deposits rise from $4.6 billion. FHLB advances and other borrowings fall below $417.3 million.
Why it matters: Classified loans fell in Q3, but new downgrades partly offset repayments. A renewed rise would weaken the credit trend.
Worry ifClassified loans rise above $45.2 million, or nonaccrual loans rise above $22.9 million, in the next report.
Less concerning ifClassified loans fall below $45.2 million and nonaccrual loans stay at or below $22.9 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $237 loss on $10,000 · 2.4% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,317 loss on $10,000 · 13.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.