Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$10.65+3.10%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
0.99 → 0.98 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 9 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 9 to 9; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for OWL yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Insider buying signals leadership confidence | Insider buying shows confidence in leadership. | Intact | No insider buying or insider selling accelerates significantly | Insider buying confirmed (3,000 shares) vs stable target News confirms President Logan Nicholson purchased 3,000 shares of OBDC stock in June 2026, validating the insider buying driver. Nov 4, 2026Last status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Review earningsObserved price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
OWL is a growth-oriented financial business whose long-term thesis depends on fundraising, capital deployment, and expanding its investment platforms. The thesis is intact, though confidence is medium and risk is elevated.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure indicates OWL is cheap versus peers, while another shows a sizable premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations may be demanding; fragility indicators are low, but that does not remove valuation risk.
Near-term results have been strong, and AUM increased from $315 billion in Q1 to $330 billion in Q3 as management continued to prioritize fundraising and platform expansion. Earnings were reported in line on October 29, and the quarterly dividend stayed at $0.23 through Q3. Near-term miss risk is described as low, but peer misses and the industry’s high miss rate remain concerns.
Over the next one to three years, the thesis hinges on continued AUM growth, successful capital deployment, and steady execution by management. Near-term sector support could weaken if rates start falling or if bellwethers BLK, BX, and KKR miss results or lower guidance; continued strong results from those firms would support the sector backdrop.
OWL’s multi-year thesis remains intact, supported by strong recent performance and growing AUM, but elevated risk, volatile management, and an expensive overall valuation call for a cautious reading. The main swing factors are execution, sector conditions, and whether growth supports current expectations. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Blue Owl Capital keeps stable operating income near $95.8M in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $55M in any quarter next year |
Operating income: $147.761M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=95.8 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Oct 30, 2026147,761,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Limit revenue decline to less than -32% in next fiscal year | A primary condition in Blue Owl Capital Inc's published investment case. The stated target is revenue decline > -32% next fiscal year. | Intact | Revenue decline exceeds -40% next fiscal year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$0.98 → $0.98 · observed estimates
$3.16B → $3.17B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $0.98 | $3,156,114,860 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-07-25 | $0.98 | $3,156,114,860 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-07-26 | $0.98 | $3,156,114,860 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-07-27 | $0.98 | $3,148,605,964 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-28 | $0.98 | $3,148,605,964 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-07-29 | $0.98 | $3,156,114,860 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-07-30 | $0.98 | $3,154,626,890 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-07-31 | $0.98 | $3,145,805,964 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-01 | $0.98 | $3,145,805,964 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-02 | $0.99 | $3,135,777,510 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-08-03 | $0.99 | $3,135,777,510 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-08-04 | $0.99 | $3,135,777,510 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-08-05 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-06 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-07 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-08 | $0.99 | $3,135,777,510 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-08-09 | $0.99 | $3,135,777,510 | 16 / 10 |
| 2026-08-10 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-12 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-13 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-14 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-15 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-16 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-17 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-18 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-19 | $0.99 | $3,120,006,028 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-20 | $0.99 | $3,140,589,088 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-21 | $0.99 | $3,140,589,088 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-22 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-23 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-24 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-25 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-26 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-27 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-28 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-29 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-30 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-08-31 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-01 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-02 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-03 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-04 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-05 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-06 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-07 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-08 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-09 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-10 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-11 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-12 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-13 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-14 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-15 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-16 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-17 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-18 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-19 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-20 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-21 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-22 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-23 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-24 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-25 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-26 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-27 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-28 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-29 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-09-30 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-01 | $0.99 | $3,129,841,228 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-02 | $0.99 | $3,152,477,690 | 9 / 8 |
| 2026-10-03 | $0.99 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | $0.99 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-05 | $0.99 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-06 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-07 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-08 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-09 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-10 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-11 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-12 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-13 | $0.98 | $3,153,201,023 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-14 | $0.98 | $3,150,406,157 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-15 | $0.98 | $3,150,406,157 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-16 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-17 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-18 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-19 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-20 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-21 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-22 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-23 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-24 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-25 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-26 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-27 | $0.98 | $3,149,913,074 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-28 | $0.98 | $3,140,933,557 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-29 | $0.98 | $3,140,933,557 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-30 | $0.97 | $3,140,933,557 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-10-31 | $0.98 | $3,153,426,641 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-01 | $0.98 | $3,153,426,641 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-02 | $0.98 | $3,153,539,424 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-03 | $0.98 | $3,172,532,422 | 9 / 9 |
| 2026-11-04 | $0.98 | $3,172,532,422 | 9 / 9 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
2 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.