Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.75-0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
Warn: Management is running behind on a stated commitment.
Blue Owl Capital keeps stable operating income near $95.8M in Q1 2026. Insider buying shows confidence in leadership. The company has a strong history of earnings beats and steady dividends. Its valuation is cheap compared to peers with a P/E of 14 versus 18.55.
The company missed Q1 2026 earnings and cut guidance, causing a sharp selloff. Revenue is expected to decline about 32% next year. Operating income has fluctuated widely in recent quarters. Market stress and negative revisions signal risks to stability.
The price is about 44% below our fair value near $17, reflecting expected revenue decline of about 32%. Our fair value is well above the Street median near $9.5, showing divergence. The market prices in a tough near-term outlook that may be too pessimistic if stability returns.
Breaks if: No insider buying or insider selling accelerates significantly
Breaks if: Operating income falls below $55M in any quarter next year
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a durable compounder with a focus on asset management. The current thesis state is cautious due to volatility in management and elevated risks despite strong recent financial performance.
The market appears to have priced in a justified valuation, although it is considered expensive compared to peers. There is a slight expectations gap, indicating that some positive performance may already be reflected in the current valuation.
Management is on track to grow assets under management, which increased recently. However, operating income has shown volatility, and maintaining stable income remains a challenge.
The future performance of OWL hinges on the outcomes of sector bellwethers like BLK, BX, and KKR. Additionally, any changes in Federal Reserve interest rates could significantly impact the company's performance.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The company plans a Data Center REIT, which could significantly grow assets under management. Additionally, Blue Owl Capital funds led a $2.4 billion financing for Iren, further enhancing growth potential. There are no new threats impacting the thesis.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Maintain stable operating income through diversified platforms and disciplined capital management.
Stated as a priority in 2 of last 2 quarters. Operating income declined from $95.8 million in 2026-Q1 to $70.9 million in 2026-Q2, indicating some volatility despite management's emphasis on stability. The trajectory shows limited progress in maintaining stable operating income.
“Results demonstrate the resilience of our business and highlight our positioning as a key provider of scaled capital solutions.”
“Our financial results reflect stability, stemming from our durable capital base.”
Breaks if: Revenue decline exceeds -40% next fiscal year
In the next 1 to 3 years, OWL's performance will depend on sector trends and management's ability to stabilize income. Not investment advice.