Blue Owl Capital Inc (OWL)
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$11.75-0.76%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · OWL
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance recently climbed back into the top half of its industry — confirming the recovery.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -23.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 17.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers
OWL — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-08-18
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of a Registrant. On August 18, 2026, Blue Owl Finance LLC (the “ Issuer ”), an indirect subsidiary of Blue Owl Capital Inc. (the “ Company ”), and the Company, Blue Owl Capital GP Holdings LLC, Blue Owl Capital GP LLC, Blue Owl Capital Holdings LP, Blue Owl Capital Carry LP, Blue Owl Capital Group LLC, Blue Owl GPSC Holdings LLC, Blue Owl Capital GP Holdings LP, Blue Owl GP Stakes GP Holdings LLC…
Why it matters: AUM growth shows Blue Owl's ability to attract capital. This supports its growth strategy.
Supportive ifAUM reported above $320 billion in the next quarterly results.
Worry ifAUM growth stalls or declines, remaining below $319 billion.
Why it matters: Stable income means better cost control. This leads to a stronger business.
Supportive ifOperating income was above $75 million in the last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income falls below $70 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Keeping the dividend shows good financial health. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend payment of $0.23 per Class A Share is made as planned.
Worry ifNo dividend payment was made. No change in the dividend amount was announced.
Why it matters: A drop in sector revenue growth could signal broader market challenges affecting Blue Owl.
Worry ifSector revenue growth is below its median in the next data.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above median.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$183 on $10,000 · ±1.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $480 loss on $10,000 · 4.8% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $5,533 loss on $10,000 · 55.3% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Paying the dividend shows financial strength and care for shareholders.
Supportive ifDividend remains at $0.23 per Class A Share for Q3.
Worry ifDividend is cut or not maintained at $0.23.
Why it matters: A drop below 15% would signal a slowdown in the sector's growth phase. This could impact investor confidence.
Worry ifQ2 revenue growth reported below 15% year over year.
Less concerning ifQ2 revenue growth remains at or above 15% year over year.