Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
$3.34-0.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
Matching fiscal periods, usable estimates and at least one analyst are required.
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
The calculation requires same-period, same-provider snapshots, positive EPS, at least one analyst and a baseline within three days of the requested lookback.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PACK yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Achieve AEBITDA growth of 5.4% to 19.9% in 2026 | A primary condition in Ranpak Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is AEBITDA growth between 5.4% and 19.9%. | Broken | AEBITDA growth falls below 5.4% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
This is a speculative growth and execution story, not a proven durable compounder, because the company is loss-making and its risk level is high. The long-term thesis remains in watch mode: recent momentum improved after earnings, but performance still trails its industry cohort.
The evidence labels PACK stretched and indicates it trades at a premium to peers, despite a cheap-versus-peers divergence signal. The expectations gap is modest, so the valuation evidence points to limited room for execution to fall short rather than a clear case of low expectations.
Near term, margins have improved and Automation has grown year over year, but revenue was nearly unchanged between Q1 and Q3, and Q3 Automation revenue was below Q2. Nine-month revenue is above the prior-year period, but full-year guidance is not yet confirmed; a guidance cut or further weak results would weigh on the operating thesis.
Over the next few quarters, the key test is whether PACK can meet its 2026 revenue guidance while scaling Automation toward profitability and continuing to improve margins. Sector bellwethers could provide a tailwind if they keep beating and raising guidance, or remove that support if they begin missing or lowering guidance.
For the 1-3 year view, PACK shows some operating progress, but sustained growth, better margins, and progress toward profitability remain unproven against a high-risk, stretched valuation. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A supporting condition in Ranpak Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is free cash flow > 0. |
| Improving |
| free cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters |
Free cash flow: $2.8M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: free cash flow > 0. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 29, 20262,800,000 USD · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Achieve net revenue growth of 5.1% to 12.7% in 2026 | A primary condition in Ranpak Holdings Corp.'s published investment case. The stated target is net revenue between $415M and $445M. | Broken | net revenue falls below $415M in FY26 | Revenue: $101.9M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: net revenue between $415M and $445M. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026101,900,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 3 of 3 supplied quarters. Management reported: “While volatility has stepped up markedly since the end of the second quarter, we believe we are executing well on the things that are in our control and expect to achieve our prior guidance for the year.” “On a year-to-date basis we have achieved net revenue growth of 8.9%, or 6.6% on a constant currency basis, inclusive of a $4.6 million provision for warrants.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$-0.06 → $-0.13 · observed estimates
$0.47B → $0.44B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $-0.06 | $466,784,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-25 | $-0.06 | $466,784,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-26 | $-0.06 | $466,784,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-27 | $-0.07 | $466,784,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-28 | $-0.07 | $466,784,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-29 | $-0.07 | $466,784,333 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-30 | $-0.06 | $466,784,330 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-07-31 | $-0.06 | $468,395,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $-0.09 | $468,395,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $-0.06 | $473,061,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-03 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $-0.06 | $473,061,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-05 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-06 | $-0.01 | $473,061,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $-0.01 | $473,061,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-09 | $-0.01 | $473,061,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-10 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-12 | $-0.01 | $473,061,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-13 | $-0.01 | $473,061,670 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-14 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-22 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-23 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-24 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-17 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-18 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-24 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-25 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-26 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-27 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-28 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-29 | $-0.06 | $473,061,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-30 | $-0.10 | $464,795,000 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-10-31 | $-0.13 | $440,756,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-01 | $-0.13 | $440,756,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-02 | $-0.13 | $440,756,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-03 | $-0.13 | $440,756,667 | 1 / 3 |
| 2026-11-04 | $-0.13 | $440,756,667 | 1 / 3 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.