Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.54+3.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
Broken: Primary pillar broken — Achieve AEBITDA growth of 5.4% to 19.9% in 2026: AEBITDA growth not reported.
Ranpak aims for revenue growth between 5.1% and 12.7% in 2026. Management targets AEBITDA growth of 5.4% to 19.9% this year. The company has a new $430 million revenue guidance for 2026. Recent earnings beats show some operational improvement.
Ranpak remains loss-making with negative free cash flow. Recent quarters have missed earnings estimates. The stock is down 15% from its high amid a sharp selloff. High valuation versus peers is not justified by current results.
The price is about 48% above our fair value near $4.4. Analysts expect 10% revenue growth, but the company is still unprofitable and faces sector headwinds. Our view is more cautious on profitability and valuation.
Breaks if: AEBITDA growth falls below 5.4% in FY26
Breaks if: free cash flow remains negative over next 4 quarters
Breaks if: net revenue falls below $415M in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a medium confidence level. The company is currently loss-making, but management is focused on achieving revenue and EBITDA growth targets.
The market seems to price in a fragile situation, as PACK has an expensive valuation compared to peers despite its weak financial performance. There is an expectations gap, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the challenges ahead.
Fundamentals are on track for revenue and adjusted EBITDA growth, driven by strong performance in Automation revenue. However, recent financial results have been weak compared to industry peers, which could pose risks in the near term.
The thesis hinges on management's ability to maintain guidance and deliver on growth targets. Additionally, external factors like inflation trends and performance of sector bellwethers will be crucial in shaping the outlook.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Our read on the company is unchanged since the prior snapshot.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PACK's performance will depend on its execution against growth targets and the broader economic environment. Not investment advice.