Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
$3.34-0.60%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-11-05
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PACK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 25.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 4.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-05.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.0 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-05 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PACK — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026 , Ranpak Holdings Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference. On July 30, 2026 , at 8:30 a.m. (ET), the Company will host a conference call and webcast in which its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 will be discussed.…
Why it matters: AEBITDA rose 6.0% year over year on a constant currency basis through Q3. The full-year result will test the stated growth range.
Watch forFull-year 2026 AEBITDA growth is between 5.4% and 19.9%.
Also watch forFull-year 2026 AEBITDA growth is below 5.4% or above 19.9%.
Why it matters: Management said Q3 volumes fell 4.9% year over year due to channel destocking and cautious demand. A return to growth would show those pressures eased.
Supportive ifQ4 protective packaging volumes in Europe and Asia are above the same quarter last year.
Worry ifQ4 Europe and Asia protective packaging volumes are flat or lower than last year.
Why it matters: Nine-month revenue was $308.3 million. The full-year result will show whether the company met its stated revenue goal.
Watch forReported 2026 revenue is between $415 million and $445 million.
Also watch forReported 2026 revenue is below $415 million or above $445 million.
Why it matters: Q3 gross margin rose to 35.6%, up 110 basis points from a year earlier. A fall below 35% would reverse some of that gain.
Watch forQ4 gross margin is above 35%, keeping it near or above the Q3 level.
Also watch forQ4 gross margin falls below 35%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$196 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $593 loss on $10,000 · 5.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,099 loss on $10,000 · 61.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.