Ranpak Holdings Corp. (PACK)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
$4.54+3.65%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryPackaging & ContainersSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PACK
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance sits well below its industry cohort — worth keeping an eye on, though it has not freshly broken.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 69.4% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 9.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 59.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
PACK — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-30
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 30, 2026 , Ranpak Holdings Corp. (the “Company”) issued a press release announcing its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026. A copy of the press release is furnished herewith as Exhibit 99.1, which is incorporated herein by reference. On July 30, 2026 , at 8:30 a.m. (ET), the Company will host a conference call and webcast in which its financial results for the second quarter ended June 30, 2026 will be discussed.…
Why it matters: If system placements keep going down, it could mean less demand for their products.
Worry ifPPS system placements decrease more than 2.3% year over year in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifPPS system placements stabilize or grow year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The consumer discretionary sector is going down. Positive growth may mean a recovery.
Supportive ifConsumer discretionary sector revenue growth is now up from last year.
Worry ifConsumer discretionary sector revenue growth is still down from last year.
Why it matters: A smaller net loss shows the company is in better financial shape and is improving.
Supportive ifQ2 net loss is less than $10.2 million.
Worry ifQ2 net loss is greater than or equal to $10.2 million.
Why it matters: Meeting the revenue growth target shows the company is on track for 2026. This is key for investor confidence.
Supportive ifQ2 net revenue growth of 5.1% or more compared to Q2 2025.
Worry ifQ2 net revenue growth falls below 5.1% compared to Q2 2025.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$222 on $10,000 · ±2.2% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $627 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,723 loss on $10,000 · 47.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Reaching this target would confirm strong demand for Ranpak's automation solutions. It shows the company's growth strategy is working.
Supportive ifAutomation revenue is over $15 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAutomation revenue falls below $15 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: This growth shows that Ranpak is making more money and controlling costs well. It shows good operations.
Supportive ifAEBITDA for Q3 2026 grows above $19.2 million.
Worry ifAEBITDA for Q3 2026 falls below $19.2 million.
Why it matters: Sustaining this growth shows strong demand for Ranpak's products. It is key to the company's overall performance.
Supportive ifNet revenue growth exceeds 5.1% in Q3 2026.
Worry ifNet revenue growth drops below 5.1% in Q3 2026.