Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PACS Group, Inc. (PACS)
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
$50.20-0.12%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NYSEHealth CareMedical - Care FacilitiesSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
2.62 → 2.66 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 3 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 3; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PACS yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Adjusted EBITDA of at least $605 million in 2026 | Adjusted EBITDA guidance rose to $605-$625 million, showing profit growth. | Intact | Adjusted EBITDA falls below $605 million in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PACS is a growth-oriented healthcare operator expanding through acquisitions, with recent financial performance rated strong and earnings quality rated robust. The long-term thesis is intact, though the signal has softened from favorable to mildly favorable and risk remains elevated.
Valuation is roughly in line with peers, and the evidence labels expectations as justified rather than fragile. The expectations gap is modestly negative, suggesting the market’s assumptions are somewhat ahead of the model’s view, although confidence in that assessment is medium.
Near term, management’s execution has been strong: 2026 revenue and Adjusted EBITDA guidance were raised, and revenue grew between the cited quarters. Facility expansion is progressing, but remains mixed as the announced acquisition is still being completed; recent earnings beats are encouraging, while erratic surprises and elevated risk remain concerns.
The key near-term test is whether PACS can sustain its raised guidance, since a reversal could damage management credibility. A weakening jobs trend could also weigh on cyclical healthcare names, while continued strong results and guidance from sector peers would support the sector backdrop.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, the thesis rests on continued operating growth and disciplined acquisition execution, with guidance credibility and the economic backdrop as important swing factors. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Cash from operations turned positive at $236 million in Q1 2026. |
| Intact |
| Operational cash flow falls below $236 million in Q1 2026 |
Cash from operations: $135.507M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=236 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 4, 2026135,507,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue near $5.65 billion in 2026 | Revenue guidance is steady near $5.7 billion for 2026. | Intact | Revenue falls below $5.65 billion in FY26 | Revenue: $1.499B FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=5650 million USD. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Nov 3, 20261,498,578,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$2.49 → $2.66 · observed estimates
$6.23B → $6.54B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-25 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-26 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-30 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-01 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-02 | $2.45 | $6,045,432,690 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $2.49 | $6,232,586,725 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-04 | $2.45 | $6,045,432,690 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $2.45 | $6,045,432,690 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $2.45 | $6,045,432,690 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $2.57 | $6,310,081,149 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | $2.75 | $6,340,097,380 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $2.75 | $6,340,097,380 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $2.75 | $6,340,097,380 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $2.71 | $6,396,464,780 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $2.71 | $6,396,464,780 | 4 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $2.57 | $6,310,081,149 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | $2.57 | $6,310,081,149 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-16 | $2.57 | $6,310,081,149 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-17 | $2.57 | $6,310,081,149 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-18 | $2.57 | $6,310,081,149 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-19 | $2.57 | $6,310,081,149 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-08-20 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $2.60 | $6,357,053,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $2.61 | $6,357,229,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $2.61 | $6,357,229,648 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 2 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $2.62 | $6,375,562,982 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $2.62 | $6,388,896,315 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $2.70 | $6,497,108,149 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $2.70 | $6,497,108,149 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $2.70 | $6,497,108,149 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $2.70 | $6,497,108,149 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $2.70 | $6,497,108,149 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $2.70 | $6,497,108,149 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-17 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-18 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-19 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-20 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-21 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-22 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-23 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.70 | $6,544,168,684 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.66 | $6,544,168,517 | 3 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 6 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.