PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.34-1.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
Intact: The reason to own it still holds.
PBF Energy is cutting costs with a $350 million target by end 2026. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year in Q1 2026. The company beat earnings with EPS of $1.65 in Q1 2026. Debt issuance supports capital needs and buybacks show management commitment.
PBF is still loss-making with fragile quality and elevated risk. Insider selling on new debt raises confidence concerns. Free cash flow yield is negative at -12%. The sector faces headwinds that may pressure margins.
The market expects about 7% revenue growth next year. Our fair value is near $405, indicating the stock is fairly priced. We see risk from ongoing losses and cost improvement execution.
Breaks if: Debt levels rise unsustainably or buybacks cease abruptly
Breaks if: cost improvements fall below $350 million run-rate by 2026-Q4
EPS falls below $8.43 in FY26
This is not a price target or investment advice.
A long-form read on the 1–3 year hold thesis. It updates when the weekly evidence changes.
This investment represents a turnaround story with a focus on cost improvements and operational efficiency. The current thesis state is intact, supported by recent earnings beats and a positive sector backdrop.
The market currently prices PBF as cheap compared to its peers, reflecting a justified valuation given the turbulent sector context. There is an expectations gap indicating that the market may not fully account for potential improvements in earnings.
Fundamentals are likely to show mixed results as management works towards its cost improvement goals and the restoration of the Martinez refinery. Near-term risks remain elevated, but the probability of missing earnings is relatively low.
The long-term thesis hinges on several factors, including inflation trends, guidance updates from management, and performance from sector bellwethers like MPC, VLO, and PSX. Positive developments in these areas could bolster PBF's prospects.
The most important moves since the prior daily snapshot.
Yes, our read has strengthened. The latest earnings beat confirmed higher revenue and profitability. PBF Energy reported Q2 2026 revenue of $11.68 billion, exceeding expectations of $9.67 billion. Adjusted earnings of $6.22 per share also surpassed the forecast of $3.49. There are no new threats identified that would weaken this outlook.
as of 2026-09-04
Review the evidence to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Breaks if: YoY revenue growth falls below 7% in FY26
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PBF's performance will depend on its ability to execute on management priorities and navigate sector dynamics. Not investment advice.