PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
$74.34-1.31%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PBF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -14.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -0.7% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 13.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers
PBF — capital allocation — Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balan…
Dated 2026-05-28
Creation of a Direct Financial Obligation or an Obligation under an Off-Balance Sheet Arrangement of the Registrant. The information required by
Why it matters: Higher net income shows a strong recovery from past losses.
Supportive ifQ2 net income is over $198.3 million, showing more recovery.
Worry ifNet income drops below $198.3 million, showing a setback in recovery.
Why it matters: Finishing this project will help PBF have more cash and manage debt better.
Supportive ifThe $500 million senior notes offering closes on May 28, 2026.
Worry ifThe offering fails to close on May 28, 2026.
Why it matters: Earnings results will show how well the company is doing. This is important during tough market times.
Watch forQ2 earnings show a significant increase in net income compared to Q1 2026.
Also watch forQ2 earnings reveal a decline in net income compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Finishing the insurance claim may show how much money can be recovered from the fire. This could affect cash flow and future spending.
Supportive ifPBF says the insurance claim process is finished. Recoveries are over $1.25 billion.
Worry ifThere may be more delays in the insurance claim process. Recoveries could fall below $1 billion.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$288 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $599 loss on $10,000 · 6.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,488 loss on $10,000 · 34.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Redemption of the 2028 notes is crucial for improving financial health. Failure to redeem could raise concerns.
Supportive ifPBF successfully redeems the 2028 Senior Notes by June 25, 2026.
Worry ifPBF fails to redeem the 2028 Senior Notes by the deadline.
Why it matters: Lowering net debt helps PBF's balance sheet and makes it more stable.
Supportive ifNet debt reported below $800 million by year-end 2026.
Worry ifNet debt remains above $800 million by year-end 2026.
Why it matters: Cost improvements will help PBF make more money and work better. This is a key focus.
Supportive ifManagement says they will save over $350 million by the end of 2026.
Worry ifCost improvements fall below $230 million by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: A rise in sector revenue growth could help PBF's performance.
Supportive ifSector revenue growth speeds back to previous highs, over 6%.
Worry ifSector revenue growth stays below 6%, showing it is still maturing.
Why it matters: Full operations at the Martinez refinery will boost production and revenue. This is key for PBF's recovery.
Supportive ifThe Martinez refinery runs at full rates in early May 2026.
Worry ifThe refinery does not reach full rates by early May 2026.
Why it matters: Cutting debt can help make finances stronger and increase confidence from investors.
Supportive ifPBF announces it has cut over $200 million in debt after refinancing.
Worry ifPBF fails to reduce debt further or increases total debt.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows careful spending, which is important for managing debt and funding growth.
Supportive ifPBF confirms that capital spending for 2026 is within the $825-$875 million range.
Worry ifPBF raises its capital spending guidance to over $875 million.
Why it matters: Better net income shows improved efficiency and market conditions. This is key for investor trust.
Supportive ifPBF reports net income improvement in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Worry ifNet income declines or remains flat in Q2 2026 compared to Q1 2026.
Why it matters: Repairs at the Chalmette refinery are important for keeping production steady. Delays may hurt revenue.
Worry ifRepairs at the Chalmette refinery are completed by the end of Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifRepairs at the Chalmette refinery extend beyond Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More renewable diesel production shows PBF can meet market demand. This fits their growth plan.
Supportive ifRenewable diesel production is 18,000 barrels per day or more in Q3.
Worry ifRenewable diesel production is below 18,000 barrels per day in Q3.
Why it matters: Finishing the turnaround shows PBF can operate reliably and efficiently. This is key for PBF.
Supportive ifThe Martinez refinery turnaround ended on time at the end of Q3.
Worry ifMartinez refinery turnaround is delayed past the end of Q3.
Why it matters: Staying in this range shows PBF is careful with money and finances.
Supportive ifCapital spending is reported between $825-$875 million for Q3.
Worry ifCapital spending is over $875 million in Q3.