PBF Energy (PBF)
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
$72.62-6.67%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEEnergyOil & Gas Refining & MarketingSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PBF
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -71.8% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.0% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 70.9 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 8 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PBF — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-14
Other Events. Notice of Optional Redemption On October 14, 2026, PBF Holding Company LLC (“PBF Holding”), an indirect subsidiary of PBF Energy Inc. (the “Company”), and PBF Finance Corporation, a wholly-owned subsidiary of PBF Holding (“PBF Finance”), issued a notice of optional full redemption to redeem all $800.0 million in aggregate principal amount of the outstanding 9.875% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “2030 Notes”) on October 26, 2026 (the “Redemption Date”) pursuant to the terms of the in…
Why it matters: PBF says the program cut run-rate costs by over $230 million in 2025. Reaching $350 million would show more savings are coming through.
Supportive ifA year-end update reports RBI run-rate cost savings above $350 million.
Worry ifA year-end update reports RBI run-rate cost savings at or below $350 million, or a delay to the goal.
Why it matters: PBF has received $1.25 billion in insurance payments so far. Final claim terms would show how much more money covers fire costs and lost business.
Watch forPBF reports a final insurance deal before year-end. It includes extra payments for covered costs or losses.
Also watch forPBF reports no final deal by year-end, or says future insurance payments are less than claimed costs and losses.
Why it matters: PBF kept its spending range after moving Chalmette and Toledo work to 2027. Staying within it would show control of planned spending.
Supportive ifPBF reports 2026 capital spending of $825 million to $875 million. This excludes the Martinez rebuild.
Worry ifPBF reports 2026 spending above $875 million, not counting the Martinez rebuild, or raises the range.
Why it matters: PBF reported $426 million of net cash at Q3-end after paying down debt. Further debt gains would support its balance-sheet plan.
Supportive ifAt the next quarter-end, PBF reports net cash or net debt below $426 million.
Worry ifAt the next quarter-end, PBF reports net debt above $426 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$288 on $10,000 · ±2.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $627 loss on $10,000 · 6.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $3,488 loss on $10,000 · 34.9% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.