Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
Paylocity (PCTY)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$169.57-0.81%
Close 2026-11-05 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
9.71 → 9.72 EPS · FY ending Jun 30, 2028 · 10 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 10; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PCTY yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase share repurchase program by $1 billion | The company buys back $1 billion more stock, showing strong capital return. | Intact | No further buybacks or cancellation of repurchase program within next year | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-06-30 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 5, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PCTY is a growth and operating-execution story, with recurring revenue, product expansion, and AI capabilities supporting its multi-year view. The thesis is intact, and company quality has improved, though elevated risk and a sector headwind temper the strong recent results.
The valuation evidence describes PCTY as cheap versus peers, with a negative expectations gap, meaning expectations appear somewhat below the model’s view. Pricing fragility is low, but the evidence does not detail the market’s specific growth assumptions.
Near term, recent results show strong execution: fiscal 2026 revenue, operating income, and free cash flow increased from fiscal 2025, and management’s revenue and efficiency priorities are on track. The near-term miss risk is assessed as low, but a guidance cut on the next call would be a meaningful negative, especially given recent peer misses and a past deep miss.
Over the next several quarters, the thesis depends on continued revenue growth from product expansion and AI, alongside further operating and cash-flow gains. Sector bellwethers such as UBER, ADP, and PAYC are swing factors: continued strong results could support the sector backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could remove that support.
For a 1-to-3-year view, PCTY combines improving company execution with a currently challenging sector backdrop and elevated risk. The thesis remains intact, but continued delivery and guidance are important tests. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| Profit improves with operating income rising from $127M to $157M in one year. |
| Intact |
| Operating income falls below $127M (2025-Q3 level) next year |
Operating income: $84.422M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$157M. The stored target says 2026-Q3; this source reports FY2026-Q4. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202684,422,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Revenue grows to about $1.64 billion next quarter | Paylocity grows revenue about 11%-12% yearly, reaching $1.64 billion next quarter. | Intact | Revenue falls below $1.48B (10% below guidance mid) next quarter | Revenue: $444.734M FY2026-Q4; GAAP. Published target: ~$1.64B. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Aug 5, 2026444,734,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$9.56 → $9.72 · observed estimates
$2.05B → $2.04B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $9.56 | $2,050,418,393 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-25 | $9.56 | $2,050,418,393 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-26 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-27 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-28 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-29 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-30 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-07-31 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-01 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-02 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-03 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-04 | $9.55 | $2,046,804,924 | 5 / 14 |
| 2026-08-05 | $9.62 | $2,050,281,580 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-06 | $9.62 | $2,050,281,580 | 13 / 14 |
| 2026-08-07 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-08 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-10 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-14 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-15 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 7 / 12 |
| 2026-08-16 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-17 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-18 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-19 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 13 |
| 2026-08-20 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-21 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-22 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-23 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-24 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-25 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-26 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-27 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-28 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-29 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-30 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-08-31 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-01 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-02 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-03 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-04 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-05 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-06 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-07 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-08 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-09 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-10 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-11 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-12 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-13 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-14 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-15 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-16 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-17 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-18 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-19 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-20 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-21 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-22 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-23 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-24 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-25 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-26 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-27 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-28 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-29 | $9.69 | $2,034,244,843 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-09-30 | $9.71 | $2,039,781,370 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-01 | $9.71 | $2,039,781,370 | 9 / 14 |
| 2026-10-02 | $9.71 | $2,039,781,370 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-03 | $9.71 | $2,039,781,370 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-04 | $9.71 | $2,039,781,370 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-05 | $9.71 | $2,039,781,370 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-06 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-07 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-08 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 14 |
| 2026-10-09 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-10 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-11 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-12 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-13 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-14 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-15 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-16 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-17 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-18 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-19 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-20 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-21 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-22 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-23 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.72 | $2,041,003,592 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.72 | $2,041,017,883 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.72 | $2,041,019,161 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.72 | $2,041,019,161 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.72 | $2,041,058,050 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.72 | $2,041,058,050 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.72 | $2,041,058,050 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.72 | $2,041,058,050 | 10 / 15 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.72 | $2,041,058,050 | 10 / 15 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 18 Buy / Strong Buy · 2 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 7 recorded
1 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.