Paylocity (PCTY)
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$152.25-1.41%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQIndustrialsSoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PCTY
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -11.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 7.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 19.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PCTY — officer change
Dated 2026-08-21
Director — Craig Conway: A board member announced they will not stand for re-election, which is a standard, non-controversial board turnover event.
Why it matters: This growth rate is crucial for assessing the company's ability to maintain its market position. A drop below 7% could indicate slowing demand.
Worry ifFiscal 2027 total revenue growth was below 7%.
Less concerning ifFiscal 2027 total revenue growth reported at or above 7%.
Why it matters: Finishing this program would show good use of money. It also shows management believes in the company's future.
Supportive ifThey announced the completion of the $1 billion share repurchase program.
Worry ifThey did not announce the completion of the $1 billion share repurchase program.
Why it matters: Total revenue growth below 8% may show slowing demand. This could hurt investor sentiment.
Worry ifTotal revenue growth for Q1 2027 is reported below 8%.
Less concerning ifTotal revenue growth for Q1 2027 is reported at 8% or higher.
Why it matters: Going over this amount shows strong returns to shareholders. It also shows confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifCompanies bought back more than $1 billion in shares.
Worry ifCompanies bought back less than $1 billion in shares.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$169 on $10,000 · ±1.7% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $469 loss on $10,000 · 4.7% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $4,547 loss on $10,000 · 45.5% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A higher adjusted EBITDA margin means more profit and better efficiency. This helps investors trust the company.
Supportive ifAdjusted EBITDA margin goes up by at least 120 basis points from fiscal 2026.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin stays the same or goes down from fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: Faster revenue growth shows Paylocity's business is getting better. It may mean the company is gaining market share or seeing more demand.
Supportive ifQ3 revenue growth reported above 6% year over year.
Worry ifQ3 revenue growth reported below 6% year over year.
Why it matters: Lower guidance may show problems with making money and running the company.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for FY 2026 is below $622.5 million.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance for FY 2026 is above $630.5 million.
Why it matters: New guidance will show how management feels about future performance.
Watch forGuidance for FY 2027 recurring revenue growth above 11%.
Also watch forGuidance for FY 2027 recurring revenue growth below 10%.
Why it matters: Better operating income means the company is managing costs well. It shows more efficiency.
Supportive ifOperating income grows faster than revenue growth in Q4 2026.
Worry ifOperating income growth lags behind revenue growth in Q4 2026.
Why it matters: Better operating income shows Paylocity is managing costs well. This is important for making money in the long run.
Supportive ifOperating income is higher than last quarter.
Worry ifOperating income is lower than last quarter.
Why it matters: A margin decline could signal issues with cost management or pricing power.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA margin falls below 36% for Q1 2027.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA margin remains at or above 36% for Q1 2027.
Why it matters: Lower guidance may mean lower profits and problems in operations.
Worry ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is below $128.6 million for Q4.
Less concerning ifAdjusted EBITDA guidance is at or above $128.6 million for Q4.
Why it matters: This growth rate shows how well Paylocity is doing. If it drops below 10%, it may mean less demand or more competition.
Worry ifRecurring revenue growth for Q1 2027 is reported below 10%.
Less concerning ifRecurring revenue growth for Q1 2027 meets or exceeds 10%.
Why it matters: If the share repurchase program grows, it shows management believes in the company's value. It also shows they want to return money to shareholders.
Supportive ifManagement says they will increase the share buyback program by $1 billion.
Worry ifNo announcement of an increase in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: A drop in cash flow margin may show problems in operations. This can affect the company's financial health.
Worry ifCash flow from operations margin is reported below 28%.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations margin remains at or above 28%.