Expectations trend
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
PagerDuty, Inc. (PD)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.00+2.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.47 → 1.47 EPS · FY ending Jan 31, 2028 · 5 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 5 to 5; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Non-GAAP EPS reaches at least $1.27 in fiscal 2027 | A primary condition in PagerDuty, Inc.'s published investment case. The stated target is >= $1.27 per share. | Intact | EPS falls below $1.27 in fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2028 · fiscal year ending 2028-01-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Nov 24, 2026
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PD is a high-risk growth and execution story, not yet a profitable compounder. The long-term thesis is intact, with company momentum improving and recent financial performance in the top half of its industry.
PD is tagged as cheap versus peers, but the expectations gap is negative, which signals that expectations may still be difficult to meet. The valuation model has high confidence, while the overall priced-in assessment is justified and shows low fragility.
Near term, revenue guidance for fiscal 2027 has stayed steady, and management raised EPS guidance, though quarterly diluted EPS has been uneven. The company is executing its share repurchase program, and the August earnings beat supports the recent improvement; however, the business remains loss-making and industry misses and a past deep miss keep execution risk high.
Over the next few quarters, the thesis depends on PD maintaining its recent performance and avoiding a guidance cut after raising guidance. In the broader multi-year view, Fed rate cuts or steadier results and guidance from large technology peers could support the sector backdrop, while continued pressure would remain a headwind.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PD has improving momentum and valuation support, but the case still depends on consistent execution amid high risk and uneven earnings. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| PagerDuty grows revenue steadily to about $493 million in fiscal 2027. |
| Intact |
| Revenue falls below $488.5 million in fiscal 2027 |
Revenue: $124.436M FY2027-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >= $488.5 million. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Aug 27, 2026124,436,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Complete $100 million share repurchase program | The company has a $100 million share buyback program. | Intact | No meaningful buyback activity by end of fiscal 2027 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.41 → $1.47 · observed estimates
$0.51B → $0.51B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.41 | $508,246,919 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.41 | $508,246,919 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.41 | $508,244,136 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-28 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
| 2026-11-04 | $1.47 | $508,270,564 | 5 / 6 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 3 Buy / Strong Buy · 4 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.