PagerDuty, Inc. (PD)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
$17.00+2.35%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -45.3% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.2% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 47.5 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 36 industry peers
PD — restructuring
Dated 2026-08-27
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities On August 26, 2026, the Company announced that it is advancing global scaling initiatives as part of its ongoing actions to improve operational efficiency and better align resources with the Company’s strategic priorities. The changes include reallocating certain roles and realigning teams to continue to improve operational resiliency and agility. The immediate impact is a reduction in the Company's current headcount of approximately 15%. The…
Why it matters: Retention was 98% in Q2, up from 97% in Q1 but below 100%. A rise above 100% would show customers spend more over time.
Supportive ifThe next reported dollar-based net retention rate tops 100%.
Worry ifThe next reported rate falls below 98%, or stays at 98% or less for two reports.
Why it matters: PagerDuty has reported five straight quarters of GAAP profit. A margin above guidance would support its profit growth story.
Supportive ifQ3 non-GAAP operating margin is reported above 27.5%. This is the top of guidance.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating margin is reported below 26.5%. This is the bottom of guidance.
Why it matters: The company is cutting headcount to align teams and improve operations. Lower costs without weaker sales would support its profit goals.
Watch forOperating costs fall year over year while revenue stays at or above the $123 million Q3 guidance floor.
Also watch forRevenue falls below $123 million while operating costs stay flat or rise year over year.
Why it matters: PagerDuty grew revenue less than 1% in Q2. Revenue below the low end of Q3 guidance would point to weaker growth.
Worry ifOn the November 24 earnings call, Q3 revenue is reported below $123 million, the low end of guidance.
Less concerning ifQ3 revenue is at least $123 million and reaches the $125 million high end of guidance.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$200 on $10,000 · ±2.0% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $556 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,443 loss on $10,000 · 64.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.