PagerDuty, Inc. (PD)
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
$13.62-3.40%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEInformation TechnologySoftware - ApplicationSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PD
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -40.2% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 1.9% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 42.1 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 119 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PD — restructuring
Dated 2026-08-27
Costs Associated with Exit or Disposal Activities On August 26, 2026, the Company announced that it is advancing global scaling initiatives as part of its ongoing actions to improve operational efficiency and better align resources with the Company’s strategic priorities. The changes include reallocating certain roles and realigning teams to continue to improve operational resiliency and agility. The immediate impact is a reduction in the Company's current headcount of approximately 15%. The…
Why it matters: News about the $100 million share buyback shows that management wants to give value to shareholders.
Supportive ifThe company says it has finished a big part of the $100 million share buyback.
Worry ifNo updates or delays in the share repurchase program.
Why it matters: If sector growth slows, it could hurt PagerDuty's performance. This is key for understanding the overall market.
Worry ifSector revenue growth reported below its median in the next quarterly update.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth remains above its median in the next quarterly update.
Why it matters: This EPS guidance shows how well the company makes money and runs its operations. Good results can help investors feel more confident.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS reported above $0.31.
Worry ifNon-GAAP EPS reported below $0.29.
Why it matters: A drop in retention rate may mean customers are unhappy or facing more competition. This is important for growth.
Worry ifThe dollar-based net retention rate is 97% or higher.
Less concerning ifThe dollar-based net retention rate is below 97%.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$229 on $10,000 · ±2.3% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $556 loss on $10,000 · 5.6% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $6,663 loss on $10,000 · 66.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Revenue guidance is a key measure of growth. It shows if the company is on track.
Supportive ifActual revenue for fiscal 2027 stays within the guidance range of $488.5 million to $496.5 million.
Worry ifActual revenue falls below $488.5 million for fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: Executing the buyback shows confidence in the company's value and can support share price. It reflects strong capital allocation.
Supportive ifPagerDuty is buying back shares from the $100 million program.
Worry ifNo buybacks were reported. This may raise concerns about cash flow or spending.
Why it matters: Meeting or beating EPS guidance shows strong profits and good cost control. This is a good sign for the new CEO.
Supportive ifNon-GAAP EPS was between $0.29 and $0.31. This meets or beats guidance.
Worry ifIf Non-GAAP EPS is below $0.29, it may show profit problems.
Why it matters: This report will show if PagerDuty can grow revenue in a slowing sector. Investors will look for signs of growth or decline.
Watch forRevenue growth exceeds 10% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Also watch forRevenue growth falls below 0% year over year in the Q2 earnings report.
Why it matters: Earnings reports provide key insights into revenue and profitability trends. They can impact stock price.
Watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth above $120 million.
Also watch forEarnings report shows revenue growth below $120 million.
Why it matters: If they meet or exceed this guidance, it shows strong growth and good operations.
Supportive ifQ3 total revenue reported at $125 million or higher.
Worry ifQ3 total revenue was below $123 million.
Why it matters: If EPS guidance goes up, it shows better profits and efficient operations.
Supportive ifEPS guidance for Q3 reported above $0.36.
Worry ifEPS guidance for Q3 reported below $0.34.
Why it matters: More share repurchases show good capital use and trust in the business.
Supportive ifTotal share repurchases exceed $100 million by the end of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifNo new share repurchases were announced after the $100 million program.