Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
$22.18+1.37%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
1.77 → 2.08 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 1 analyst
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 1 to 1; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PDLB yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Increase cash from operations to at least $13.88 million in 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations surged from $1.39 million to $13.88 million, supporting growth and stability. | Intact | Cash from operations falls below $1.39 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Cash from operations: $8.043M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=13.88 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 20268,043,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PDLB is a financial company with a long-term thesis tied to earnings and net interest income growth. The thesis is currently intact, supported by strong recent financial performance and stable management, though the confidence level is medium.
The valuation evidence is mixed: one measure points to PDLB being cheap versus peers, while another shows a 0.78 premium, and the overall value assessment is expensive. The priced-in label is justified, with low indicated fragility, but the negative expectations gap suggests the market outlook is not uniformly optimistic.
Near term, results may remain uneven: PDLB missed its latest quarter, had another miss in July, and recent earnings surprises have been erratic. Over the multi-year view, net interest income increased from the second to the third quarter, but reported third-quarter income included non-recurring items; higher staffing costs also mean efficiency gains are not yet clear.
A guidance cut at the next call would be a meaningful negative, while continued earnings growth and net interest income progress would support the stated management priorities. The rate backdrop and results from financial-sector bellwethers are additional swing factors, and completion of the pending preferred-stock repurchase remains unresolved.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PDLB’s thesis rests on turning recent operating strength into more consistent earnings, despite near-term miss risk and an expensive overall value assessment. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Increase earnings per share to at least $0.36 in 2026-Q1 | Ponce Financial Group steadily grows earnings per share, up 44% year-over-year to $0.36 in 2026-Q1. | Intact | EPS falls below $0.27 in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Diluted EPS: $0.76 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >=0.36 USD_PER_SHARE. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q3. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Nov 4, 20260.76 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Grow operating income to at least $11.37 million in 2026-Q1 | Operating income rose from $8.75 million to $11.37 million in the same period. | Intact | Operating income falls below $8.75 million in any quarter after 2026-Q1 | Operating income: $11.305M FY2026-Q2; GAAP. Published target: >=11.37 million USD. The stored target says 2026-Q1; this source reports FY2026-Q2. Fiscal/calendar alignment needs review. Aug 5, 202611,305,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$1.77 → $2.08 · observed estimates
Unavailable → $0.15B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-28 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-07-29 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-01 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-02 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-07 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-08 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-12 | $1.77 | Unavailable | 1 / 0 |
| 2026-08-13 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-14 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-16 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-17 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-18 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-19 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-20 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-21 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-22 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-23 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-24 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-25 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-26 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-27 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-28 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-29 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-30 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-08-31 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-01 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-02 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-03 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-04 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-06 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-07 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-08 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-09 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-10 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-12 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-13 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-14 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-16 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-17 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-18 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-20 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-21 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-22 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-23 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-24 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-25 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-27 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-28 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-29 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-09-30 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-01 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-02 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-03 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-04 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-05 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-06 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-07 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-08 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-09 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-10 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-11 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-12 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-13 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-14 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-15 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-16 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-17 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-18 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-19 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-20 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-21 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-22 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-23 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-24 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-25 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-26 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-27 | $1.77 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-28 | $2.08 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-29 | $2.08 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-30 | $2.08 | $133,600,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-10-31 | $2.08 | $153,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-01 | $2.08 | $153,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-02 | $2.08 | $153,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-03 | $2.08 | $153,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
| 2026-11-04 | $2.08 | $153,000,000 | 1 / 1 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 1 Buy / Strong Buy · 0 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 0 recorded
Individual price-target observations are unavailable.
0 raises · 0 cuts · 0 unchanged · 0 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.