Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (PDLB)
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
$20.72+1.07%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsBanks - RegionalSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PDLB
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -17.1% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -25.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.1 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 219 industry peers
PDLB — earnings miss
Dated 2026-07-27
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. On July 27, 2026, Ponce Financial Group, Inc. (the "Company"), the holding company for Ponce Bank, National Association ("Ponce Bank" or the "Bank"), issued a press release announcing its financial results with respect to its second quarter ended June 30, 2026. The Company’s press release is included as Exhibit 99.1 to this report. The information set forth in this
Why it matters: This could enhance shareholder value and improve the book value per share. Investors will watch for progress on this regulatory process.
Supportive ifThe bank said it finished buying back preferred stock. This was under the ECIP Purchase Option Agreement.
Worry ifThere is no news about the completion or delays in the buyback process.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth falls, it may impact Ponce Financial's performance. It shows the sector's health.
Worry ifSector revenue growth drops below 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifSector revenue growth stays above 15% year over year.
Why it matters: A drop in EPS could signal a reversal in the company's growth momentum.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS falls below $0.30.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS remains at or above $0.30.
Why it matters: This will show if earnings growth continues after a recent earnings miss. Investors look for consistent performance.
Supportive ifIn Q3, net income for common stockholders is over $8.5 million.
Worry ifIn Q3, net income for common stockholders is below $8.5 million.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$84 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $200 loss on $10,000 · 2.0% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $842 loss on $10,000 · 8.4% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A drop below this level may show worse profit from interest-earning assets.
Worry ifNet interest margin remains at or above 3.60%.
Less concerning ifNet interest margin falls below 3.60%.
Why it matters: A big drop in non-interest income may show problems in operations.
Worry ifNon-interest income for Q3 declines more than 20% year over year.
Less concerning ifNon-interest income for Q3 remains stable or grows year over year.
Why it matters: A better efficiency ratio means better cost management. This is key for keeping profits.
Supportive ifEfficiency ratio drops to below 55% in Q3.
Worry ifEfficiency ratio gets worse, rising above 60% in Q3.
Why it matters: Completing this repurchase could enhance shareholder value and improve the book value per share.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of the successful repurchase of preferred stock from the U.S. Treasury.
Worry ifNo announcement or failure to meet terms for the preferred stock buyback.
Why it matters: A drop in non-interest income may show weaker performance. This affects overall profits.
Worry ifIn Q3, non-interest income is over $1.5 million.
Less concerning ifIn Q3, non-interest income is below $1.5 million.
Why it matters: Growth in net interest income is important for overall earnings. It shows the bank's skill in managing its interest margin.
Supportive ifQ3 net interest income exceeds $30.1 million.
Worry ifQ3 net interest income falls below $30.1 million.
Why it matters: A drop below the median could signal a slowdown in the financial sector. This would impact Ponce Financial's growth outlook.
Worry ifRevenue growth in the financial sector falls below its median rate of growth.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above its median rate.
Why it matters: If non-interest income stays steady, it shows more revenue sources. This is good for financial health.
Supportive ifNon-interest income was over $2 million for Q2 2026.
Worry ifNon-interest income was under $2 million for Q2 2026.