PepsiCo (PEP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$137.63-1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 4.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.8% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.7 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 9 industry peers
PEP — earnings in line
Dated 2026-07-09
Results of Operations and Financial Condition. The information in this Item 2.02, including Exhibit 99.1 attached hereto, is being furnished and shall not be deemed “filed” for the purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended (the “Exchange Act”), or otherwise subject to the liabilities of that Section and shall not be incorporated by reference into any registration statement or other document pursuant to the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, or the Exchange Act…
Why it matters: The earnings report will show how the company is doing. It will affect how investors feel.
Watch forEarnings report shows positive trends in revenue and EPS.
Also watch forEarnings report shows negative trends in revenue and EPS.
Why it matters: Staying below this level shows careful spending and helps financial health.
Supportive if2026 capital spending was below 5% of net revenue.
Worry if2026 capital spending was above 5% of net revenue.
Why it matters: Growth in this segment is crucial for overall performance. It reflects market share gains and innovation success.
Watch forNorth America convenient foods revenue growth was over 2% from last year.
Also watch forNorth America convenient foods revenue growth was less than 0% from last year.
Why it matters: This amount shows the company's commitment to returning value to investors. It reflects financial health.
Supportive ifTotal cash returns reported at or above $8.9 billion.
Worry ifTotal cash returns were less than $8.5 billion.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$88 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $225 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,014 loss on $10,000 · 20.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: This growth range is key for meeting the annual target. It shows if the company is on track to grow.
Supportive ifQ3 organic revenue growth reported at 4% or higher.
Worry ifQ3 organic revenue growth was less than 2%.
Why it matters: A strong FCF conversion ratio helps with how money is spent.
Supportive ifFCF conversion ratio was above 80%.
Worry ifFCF conversion ratio was below 80%.
Why it matters: Changes in capital spending could indicate shifts in strategy or financial health. This may impact future growth and shareholder returns.
Watch forManagement plans to spend less than 5% of net revenue.
Also watch forManagement plans to spend more than 5% of net revenue.
Why it matters: This growth is important for maintaining the EPS target for the year. It reflects the company's profitability.
Supportive ifCore constant currency EPS growth reported at 6% or higher.
Worry ifCore constant currency EPS growth reported below 4%.
Why it matters: This growth shows PepsiCo can succeed in a tough market. They keep moving forward.
Supportive ifNet revenue growth reported above 4% for Q2.
Worry ifNet revenue growth reported below 4% for Q2.