PepsiCo (PEP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
$142.42+3.75%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEP
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 11.6% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.1% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 8.5 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 3 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PEP — debt issuance
Dated 2026-10-16
Other Events. PepsiCo Senior Notes Offering. On October 9, 2026, PepsiCo, Inc. (“PepsiCo”) announced an offering of €500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 3.750% Senior Notes due 2029 (the “2029 Notes”) and €500,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 4.250% Senior Notes due 2035 (the “2035 Notes,” and together with the 2029 Notes, the “Notes”). Deutsche Bank AG, London Branch and HSBC Bank plc were joint book-running managers for the offering of the Notes. PepsiCo received net proc…
Why it matters: The company has kept this spending limit in its 2026 outlook. Spending below the limit would support its cash flow plan.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 capital spending is reported at less than 5% of net revenue.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 capital spending reaches or exceeds 5% of net revenue.
Why it matters: Q3 core operating margin fell 35 basis points. Management cited higher costs and more advertising, while cost cuts aim to fund growth.
Worry ifCore operating margin falls by 35 basis points or more year over year in the next reported quarter.
Less concerning ifCore operating margin is flat or higher year over year in the next reported quarter.
Why it matters: PepsiCo has kept its cash return plan at $8.9 billion. The plan includes $7.9 billion in dividends and $1.0 billion in share repurchases.
Supportive ifPepsiCo reports about $8.9 billion in cash returns for 2026. This includes the stated dividend and share repurchase amounts.
Worry ifPepsiCo cuts its 2026 cash return plan below $8.9 billion or reports a clear shortfall.
Why it matters: Q3 growth was 1.5%, and year-to-date growth was 2%. Both are below the 4% to 6% goal set earlier in the year.
Worry ifFull-year core constant currency EPS growth is below 4%, or management cuts its 4% to 6% goal.
Less concerning ifFull-year growth reaches at least 4%, with the 4% to 6% goal kept in place.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$81 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $225 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,678 loss on $10,000 · 26.8% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: PepsiCo raised its 2026 organic revenue view to about 3%. Q3 growth reached 3.1%, with volume growth across foods and drinks.
Supportive ifFull-year 2026 organic revenue growth is reported at 2% to 4% or higher.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 organic revenue growth is below 2%, or guidance is cut below that level.
Why it matters: Q3 North America snack trends improved, but lower prices offset some gains. More volume and share gains would show that brand and price offers are working.
Supportive ifNext results show North America snack volume and market share above last year's levels.
Worry ifNorth America snack volume or market share falls below last year's levels.