PepsiCo (PEP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-07-07
$144.98+1.18%
Close 2026-07-07 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $144.98. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $145 PEP trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median, and our $132 fair value agrees. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $142–$181. Note: our $132 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($142–$181). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $152 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $162.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $194.35 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $204.73 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $88.21 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$142.00 – $181.00 (median $162.50) · 10 analysts · as of 2026-07-01
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 41% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 34.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.47/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Self-history needs ~20 months of data.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $48.63 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $115.51 | 19.3 | 6.00 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $144.07 | 16.9 | 10.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $131.18 | 20.3 | 6.45 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $128.80 | 19.3 | 6.69 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $118.41 | 1.7 | 69.62 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $329.21 | 49.2 | 6.69 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $35.82 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $144.65 | 21.6 | 6.69 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $134.01 | 19.3 | 6.96 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $214.58 | 19.3 | 11.15 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $199.51 | 20.3 | 9.81 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $183.28 | 19.3 | 9.52 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $132.56 | 1.7 | 77.94 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $468.47 | 49.2 | 9.52 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $205.84 | 21.6 | 9.52 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $324.27 | 19.3 | 16.84 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $263.86 | 20.3 | 12.97 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $194.44 | 19.3 | 10.10 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $140.63 | 1.7 | 82.69 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $497.00 | 49.2 | 10.10 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $218.38 | 21.6 | 10.10 | Analyst | high |