PepsiCo (PEP)
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
$137.63-1.71%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQConsumer StaplesBeverages - Non-alcoholicSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PEP
Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 13 valuation methods, at three horizons. As of 2026-09-04. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $138 PEP trades at 16× p/e, below its 17× p/e peer median, but our blended $132 fair value sits below the price. It's a high-confidence read. Analysts target $134–$183. Note: our $132 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($134–$183). Not investment advice.
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $153.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $234.95 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $262.34 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $89.88 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Bottom 25% on quality vs scored peers
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
$134.00 – $183.00 (median $153.50) · 18 analysts · as of 2026-07-21
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price you pay about 31% over what the business is worth with no growth; closing that gap needs roughly 66.0 years of the forecast growth to come through. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $5.58/sh owner earnings.
Roughly priced in line with peers.
Cheaper than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
| $55.32 |
| — |
| — |
| TTM |
| high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $103.75 | 11.7 | 11.56 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $107.88 | 15.9 | 6.78 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $139.59 | 15.8 | 8.83 | ntm analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $60.41 | 0.9 | 70.78 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $102.20 | 12.2 | 8.36 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $42.53 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $177.40 | 21.2 | 8.36 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $142.56 | 16.8 | 8.48 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $164.07 | 15.9 | 10.31 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $150.52 | 15.8 | 9.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $66.85 | 0.9 | 78.32 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $116.46 | 12.2 | 9.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $202.15 | 21.2 | 9.53 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $216.99 | 15.9 | 13.64 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $159.69 | 15.8 | 10.11 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $70.92 | 0.9 | 83.09 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $123.55 | 12.2 | 10.11 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $214.46 | 21.2 | 10.11 | Analyst | high |