Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Principal Financial Group (PFG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
$117.31+4.13%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
10.43 → 10.05 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 8 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 6 to 8; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PFG yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Deploy $1.5-$1.8 billion in capital in 2026 | It plans to deploy $1.5-$1.8 billion in capital this year. | Intact | Capital deployment falls below $1.3 billion in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PFG is a financial company with a relatively low-risk profile and robust earnings quality in the evidence snapshot. Its multi-year view is not yet clear: the thesis state is insufficient because there is not enough recent financial-performance history to assess it.
Valuation is tagged as justified, with a durable premium versus peers and low fragility. The expectations gap is negative, suggesting expectations are ahead of what the valuation model supports, though confidence in that model is medium.
Near term, the October 26 earnings miss and a run of consecutive misses raise execution concerns, despite a stated low miss risk. In 3Q26, operating earnings per share rose year over year and shareholder distributions were substantial, but progress toward annual earnings growth is mixed and current delivery against the ROE goal is not established.
The multi-year thesis depends on sustaining earnings growth and meeting the stated return and ROE priorities. Near term, a reversal of recently raised guidance would damage credibility, while rate cuts could weigh on the financial sector; continued earnings strength from sector bellwethers could support sector momentum.
Over the next 1 to 3 years, PFG has evidence of earnings growth and meaningful capital returns, but the recent miss streak and uncertainty around guidance and ROE keep the thesis incomplete. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Principal Financial Group's published investment case. The stated target is 9-12% YoY EPS growth. |
| Intact |
| EPS growth falls below 6% YoY in FY26 |
Diluted EPS growth: 206.32% FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: 9-12% YoY EPS growth. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 29, 2026206.315789 percent · calculatedLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Maintain ROE of 15-17% in FY26 | A primary condition in Principal Financial Group's published investment case. The stated target is 15-17% ROE. | Intact | ROE falls below 13% in FY26 | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$10.39 → $10.05 · observed estimates
$17.85B → $17.80B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $10.39 | $17,853,300,936 | 7 / 2 |
| 2026-07-25 | $10.31 | $17,827,087,080 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $10.38 | $17,849,995,265 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-07-27 | $10.31 | $17,827,087,080 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-28 | $10.31 | $17,827,087,080 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-29 | $10.33 | $17,827,087,080 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $10.33 | $17,827,087,080 | 11 / 6 |
| 2026-07-31 | $10.37 | $17,826,159,951 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-01 | $10.37 | $17,826,159,951 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-02 | $10.34 | $17,657,844,490 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-03 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $10.35 | $17,720,068,180 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-07 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $10.35 | $17,720,068,180 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-09 | $10.35 | $17,720,068,180 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-10 | $10.35 | $17,720,068,180 | 11 / 5 |
| 2026-08-12 | $10.39 | $17,720,068,180 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-13 | $10.39 | $17,720,068,180 | 12 / 5 |
| 2026-08-14 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $10.41 | $17,831,889,765 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $10.43 | $17,899,892,997 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-21 | $10.43 | $17,899,892,997 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-08-22 | $10.43 | $17,899,892,997 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-23 | $10.43 | $17,899,892,997 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-08-24 | $10.43 | $17,899,892,997 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-25 | $10.43 | $17,899,892,997 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-26 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-27 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-28 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-29 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-30 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-08-31 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-01 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-02 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-03 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-06 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-07 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-08 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-09 | $10.44 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-10 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-11 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-13 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-14 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-15 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-16 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-17 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-18 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-19 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-20 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-21 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-22 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-23 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-24 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-25 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-26 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-27 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-28 | $10.41 | $17,920,893,664 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-29 | $10.43 | $17,942,979,379 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-09-30 | $10.43 | $17,942,979,379 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-01 | $10.43 | $17,942,979,379 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-02 | $10.43 | $17,942,979,379 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | $10.43 | $17,942,979,379 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-04 | $10.43 | $17,942,979,379 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-05 | $10.43 | $17,942,979,379 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-06 | $10.42 | $17,938,916,952 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-07 | $10.37 | $17,938,916,952 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-08 | $10.37 | $17,938,916,952 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-09 | $10.35 | $17,914,345,523 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-10 | $10.32 | $17,890,749,816 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-11 | $10.32 | $17,890,749,816 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-12 | $10.32 | $17,890,749,816 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.28 | $17,845,701,516 | 6 / 4 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.26 | $17,845,701,516 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.26 | $17,845,701,516 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.25 | $17,829,087,553 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.25 | $17,829,087,553 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.25 | $17,829,087,553 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.25 | $17,829,087,553 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.25 | $17,829,087,553 | 8 / 5 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.25 | $17,818,721,481 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.24 | $17,811,476,902 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.24 | $17,811,476,902 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-24 | $10.24 | $17,811,476,902 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-25 | $10.24 | $17,811,476,902 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-26 | $10.24 | $17,807,202,788 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-27 | $10.24 | $17,807,202,788 | 7 / 5 |
| 2026-10-28 | $10.15 | $17,812,195,659 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-29 | $10.15 | $17,823,994,417 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-30 | $10.15 | $17,823,994,417 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-10-31 | $10.11 | $17,778,578,445 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-01 | $10.11 | $17,778,578,445 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-02 | $10.11 | $17,778,578,445 | 8 / 6 |
| 2026-11-03 | $10.08 | $17,789,855,402 | 7 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $10.05 | $17,803,892,409 | 8 / 5 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 2 Buy / Strong Buy · 8 Hold · 2 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 3 cuts · 0 unchanged · 1 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.