Principal Financial Group (PFG)
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
$116.68-1.54%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NASDAQFinancialsAsset ManagementSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PFG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | -3.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 10.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 14.4 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 35 industry peers
PFG — debt issuance
Dated 2026-06-01
Entry Into a Material Definitive Agreement. On June 1, 2026, Principal Financial Group, Inc. (the “Company”) issued $400,000,000 aggregate principal amount of its 5.300% Senior Notes due 2037 (the “Notes”). The Notes were issued pursuant to the Senior Indenture, dated as of May 21, 2009 (the “Senior Indenture”), among the Company, as issuer, Principal Financial Services, Inc. (“PFSI”), as guarantor, and The Bank of New York Mellon Trust Company, N.A., as trustee, as supplemented by the Eighte…
Why it matters: Strong AUM growth shows good asset management and market performance. It helps revenue growth.
Supportive ifAssets under management (AUM) growth exceeds 7% year over year in Q3 2026.
Worry ifAUM growth is 7% or lower year over year in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: More cash flow from assets shows better investment results.
Supportive ifQ3 AUM net cash flow turns positive after being negative in previous quarters.
Worry ifQ3 AUM net cash flow remains negative.
Why it matters: Deploying $1.5-$1.8 billion is key for growth. Delays may signal weaker strategy.
Watch forThey announced they will spend more than $1.5 billion.
Also watch forThere was no news on spending or delays beyond expected dates.
Why it matters: Revenue growth is slowing. Falling below median could signal sector weakness.
Worry ifRevenue growth reported below the median of 12%.
Less concerning ifRevenue growth remains above the median of 12%.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$86 on $10,000 · ±0.9% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $219 loss on $10,000 · 2.2% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,196 loss on $10,000 · 12.0% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Hitting this target shows good capital management. It also helps support growth plans. This shows management cares about returning money to shareholders.
Supportive ifCapital deployment reaches or exceeds $1.5 billion in the year.
Worry ifCapital deployment is less than $1.5 billion.
Why it matters: A steady rise in dividends shows the company is healthy. It also shows care for shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a common stock dividend increase for Q3.
Worry ifNo increase in the common stock dividend for Q3.
Why it matters: Management plans to spend $1.5-$1.8 billion each year. This shows they want to grow.
Supportive ifManagement announces plans to deploy at least $1.5 billion in capital in Q3.
Worry ifNo news or a cut in planned spending for Q3.
Why it matters: This shows the company is having trouble keeping its return on equity target.
Worry ifROE reported below 15% for Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifROE reported at or above 15% for Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Management targets 9-12% annual non-GAAP EPS growth. A miss signals weaker performance.
Worry ifQ3 non-GAAP operating EPS growth below 9%.
Less concerning ifQ3 non-GAAP operating EPS growth of 9% or more.
Why it matters: Management has raised dividends often. An increase shows they trust their cash flow.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a dividend increase for Q4.
Worry ifNo increase in the dividend for Q4.
Why it matters: Assets under management (AUM) growth is key for revenue. A slowdown could impact earnings.
Worry ifAUM growth stabilizes or declines in Q3.
Less concerning ifAUM growth continues to rise above 7%.
Why it matters: Management plans to spend $1.5-$1.8 billion each year. Announcements show they are serious.
Supportive ifLook for news on capital spending plans in Q3.
Worry ifNo news or cuts to planned capital spending.