Procter & Gamble (PG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
$146.44-0.33%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PG
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
Recent financial performance is holding in the top half of its industry — the reason to own it looks intact.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 23.9% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 2.6% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
No outside relationship met the current evidence threshold.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 21.2 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 18 industry peers
PG — CEO transition
Dated 2026-07-29
Executive Chairman — Jon R. Moeller: Jon R. Moeller is retiring as Executive Chairman with Shailesh G. Jejurikar appointed as the new Chairman of the Board.
Why it matters: An update on EPS growth outlook shows how well the company manages costs and sales.
Supportive ifManagement raises EPS growth outlook for the next quarter above 5%.
Worry ifManagement lowers EPS growth outlook below 3% for the next quarter.
Why it matters: Lower EPS growth guidance shows profit challenges.
Worry ifCore EPS growth guidance revised down from the current range of 0% to 4%.
Less concerning ifCore EPS growth guidance maintained or revised up.
Why it matters: Earnings results in Q1 2027 will show if growth plans are on track amid economic challenges.
Watch forQ1 2027 earnings show net sales growth of 1% or more.
Also watch forQ1 2027 earnings show net sales decline.
Why it matters: Confirming sales growth guidance shows the company can grow despite challenges. It signals strength.
Supportive ifManagement confirms sales growth guidance of at least 5% for the upcoming quarter.
Worry ifManagement expects sales growth to be less than 5% for the next quarter.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$82 on $10,000 · ±0.8% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $189 loss on $10,000 · 1.9% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $1,615 loss on $10,000 · 16.2% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: A steady or higher dividend shows financial strength.
Supportive ifDividend payout remains at $1.0885 per share or increases.
Worry ifDividend payout goes down.
Why it matters: High free cash flow productivity shows the company is managing its cash well for growth.
Supportive ifFree cash flow productivity exceeds 90% in the next quarter.
Worry ifFree cash flow productivity falls below 70% in the next quarter.
Why it matters: Shailesh Jejurikar's appointment as Chairman may shift P&G's strategic focus. This could affect future performance.
Watch forNew positive initiatives were announced after the transition. They match growth goals.
Also watch forThere are negative changes or drops in performance after the transition.
Why it matters: The Consumer Price Index on August 12 may affect consumer spending. This impacts P&G's sales.
Watch forConsumer sentiment improves after the CPI report. This leads to more spending on P&G products.
Also watch forConsumer sentiment drops after the CPI report. This shows less spending on P&G products.
Why it matters: A smaller dividend increase might show weaker cash flow or worries about profits.
Worry ifDividend increase announced at less than 3% from the last quarter.
Less concerning ifDividend increase announced at 3% or more from the last quarter.
Why it matters: If sector revenue growth improves, it may help P&G's sales outlook. It shows market strength.
Watch forSector revenue growth picks up to above 6% year over year.
Also watch forSector revenue growth declines below 4% year over year.
Why it matters: Weak EPS growth may show ongoing problems with making money. This can hurt investor trust.
Worry ifQ3 diluted EPS growth reported below 1%.
Less concerning ifQ3 diluted EPS growth reported at 1% or higher.
Why it matters: Higher commodity costs can lower profit margins. This may reduce overall earnings.
Worry ifCommodity costs reported as rising more than $150 million after tax.
Less concerning ifCommodity costs reported as rising less than $150 million after tax.
Why it matters: Higher commodity costs could pressure margins and affect EPS growth outlook.
Worry ifManagement cuts EPS guidance. This is due to higher commodity costs.
Less concerning ifManagement keeps or raises EPS guidance. This happens even with rising commodity costs.
Why it matters: EPS growth guidance reflects profitability. A cut signals deeper issues.
Worry ifGuidance for EPS growth falls below 1% for fiscal 2026.
Less concerning ifEPS growth guidance remains at or above 1% for fiscal 2026.
Why it matters: This would indicate trouble in maintaining sales growth and could affect future guidance.
Worry ifQ3 organic sales growth was below 3%.
Less concerning ifQ3 organic sales growth reported at 3% or higher.
Why it matters: This growth range shows if P&G can keep up with its sales goals. It impacts future earnings and investor confidence.
Supportive ifOrganic sales growth reported at 2% or higher in any quarter of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifOrganic sales growth was below 1% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: This growth shows if P&G can maintain profitability. It affects how investors view the company's financial health.
Supportive ifDiluted EPS growth reported at 3% or higher in any quarter of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifDiluted EPS growth reported below 1% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: This range shows how well P&G manages its cash flow. It impacts financial flexibility and investment capacity.
Supportive ifAdjusted free cash flow productivity was 90% or more in any quarter of fiscal 2027.
Worry ifFree cash flow productivity was less than 85% in fiscal 2027.
Why it matters: This report will provide updates on sales and earnings. It can signal the company's performance and market trends.
Watch forEarnings report shows net sales growth of 3% or more year over year.
Also watch forEarnings report shows net sales decline or flat growth year over year.