Procter & Gamble (PG)
NYSEConsumer StaplesHousehold & Personal ProductsSnapshot 2026-07-08
$148.39-2.85%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 14 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $148.39. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Above average on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $153 PG trades at 22× p/e, in line with its 19× p/e peer median — but our blended $131 fair value sits below the price. We hold it with medium confidence: our number sits below the analyst range. Analysts target $142–$172. Note: our $131 fair value sits below the entire analyst range ($142–$172). Even valued only for durable growth at sustainable margins, it's worth about $153 — above today's price, so the premium reflects that growth case, not pure multiple expansion. Not investment advice.
$142.00 – $172.00 (median $162.50) · 8 analysts · as of 2026-06-11
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
At today's price the business can't be justified by any reasonable horizon of the forecast growth; the price already runs past what the model can underwrite. These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $6.33/sh owner earnings.
Looks more expensive than peers.
Around its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1, 2026-Q2, 2026-Q3
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $162.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $121.46 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $119.19 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $66.76 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $59.47 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 12M | $132.35 | 19.0 | 6.96 | Mgmt | high |
| Peer EV/EBITDA | 12M | $150.26 | 16.6 | 9.68 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $124.09 | 20.0 | 6.22 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $131.97 | 19.0 | 6.94 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $60.70 | 1.7 | 35.89 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $50.22 | 7.2 | 6.94 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $41.50 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $157.85 | 22.7 | 6.94 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $136.61 | 19.0 | 7.18 | Triangulated | high |
| Mgmt guidance | 3Y | $141.14 | 19.0 | 7.42 | Mgmt(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $152.86 | 20.0 | 7.66 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $138.81 | 19.0 | 7.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $64.63 | 1.7 | 38.21 | guidance | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $52.82 | 7.2 | 7.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $166.03 | 22.7 | 7.30 | Analyst | medium |
| Mgmt guidance | 5Y | $147.32 | 19.0 | 7.75 | Mgmt(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $175.65 | 20.0 | 8.80 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | high |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $147.26 | 19.0 | 7.74 | Analyst | high |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $68.57 | 1.7 | 40.54 | guidance | high |
| PEG | 5Y | $56.03 | 7.2 | 7.74 | Analyst | high |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $176.14 | 22.7 | 7.74 | Analyst | high |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.