PulteGroup (PHM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-07-08
$122.94-5.37%
Close 2026-07-08 · 1-day change
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Price, fair value, and the multiples that frame it on the same time axis. Scroll over the price chart to zoom.
Daily closes. Earnings/event dots inline.
A consensus fair price across 12 valuation methods, at three horizons. Current price $122.94. As of 2026-07-08. Estimates are diagnostics, not price targets. Short-horizon estimates are close to coin-flips, so confidence is a method-agreement read, not a prediction.
Today's peer multiple on trailing earnings, with no growth credited. This is the headline read.
Adds projected growth, so it leans optimistic by design. Read it as upside context, not a base case.
A long-thesis check that carries the widest uncertainty of the three horizons.
Top 10% on quality vs scored peers
A second lens on the 12-month fair value: for companies that score high on measured quality (profitability, balance-sheet safety, earnings stability), this read trusts more of today's profit margins instead of averaging them toward their multi-year history the way the headline number does. Shown alongside the fair value above, not in place of it. A diagnostic, not a price target or a buy/sell signal.
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
We take the 12-month fair value above and grade our own number — how the market prices this name versus what we'd justify, and where the two diverge.
At $130 PHM trades at 13× p/e, below its 23× p/e peer median. Our $149 fair value sits above the price. We hold it with medium confidence: the peer anchor overstates how cheap it looks. Analysts target $140–$162. Not investment advice.
$140.00 – $162.00 (median $150.50) · 4 analysts · as of 2026-04-24
One valuation read at a 12-month horizon, plus how price compares to peers and the company's own history.
Only weak execution quality — not the full expensive x weak x turbulent stack. Regime (Mania) does not concentrate fragility.
For similar setups historically (n=20,154): about 33% saw a 20%+ drawdown, and roughly 76% of those did not recover within the year. These are historical base rates for the cohort, not a forecast of this stock.
These describe the expectations embedded in the price, not a forecast of the move. Reverse-DCF base: $14.16/sh owner earnings.
Looks cheaper than most peers in the same business.
Richer than its own typical valuation.
Trailing four: 2025-Q1, 2025-Q2, 2025-Q3, 2026-Q1
Score 100 = cheapest in the cohort, 0 = richest. Bars are filled left-to-right based on the peer-relative score (or PEG/self-history where shown).
Direction of the business behind the multiple. Bands are backend reads; trailing-12-month basis.
Each method's implied share price per horizon. Provisional rows use a projected (historical-CAGR) growth input rather than analyst or management guidance.
| Method | Horizon | Est. price | Multiple | Per-share input | EPS source | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| analyst target | 12M | $150.50 | — | — | Analyst | high |
| dcf fcfe | 12M | $193.47 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| dcf fcff | 12M | $202.49 | — | — | Hist. CAGR | high |
| ddm gordon | 12M | $15.38 | — | — | TTM | high |
| graham number | 12M | $124.83 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 12M | $162.59 | 19.1 | 8.50 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/E | 12M | $230.12 | 22.3 | 10.34 | TTM | high |
| Peer P/S | 12M | $175.92 | 2.0 | 87.01 | TTM | high |
| PEG | 12M | $211.97 | 20.5 | 10.34 | TTM | high |
| residual income | 12M | $84.61 | — | — | TTM | high |
| Own P/E history | 12M | $103.60 | 10.0 | 10.34 | TTM | high |
| triangulated | 12M | $235.73 | 22.3 | 10.59 | Triangulated | high |
| Peer P/FCF | 3Y | $214.97 | 19.1 | 11.24 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 3Y | $252.24 | 22.3 | 11.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 3Y | $182.78 | 2.0 | 90.40 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 3Y | $232.35 | 20.5 | 11.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 3Y | $113.56 | 10.0 | 11.33 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/FCF | 5Y | $258.97 | 19.1 | 13.54 | Hist. CAGR(prov.) | medium |
| Peer P/E | 5Y | $258.61 | 22.3 | 11.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Peer P/S | 5Y | $187.40 | 2.0 | 92.69 | Analyst | medium |
| PEG | 5Y | $238.22 | 20.5 | 11.62 | Analyst | medium |
| Own P/E history | 5Y | $116.43 | 10.0 | 11.62 | Analyst | medium |
A “consensus-then vs. actual-now” overlay is on the way — what our valuation estimate said on a past date versus where the price actually landed.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.