PulteGroup (PHM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
$124.45+0.11%
Close 2026-09-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-09-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PHM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 2.5% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | 3.3% |
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 0.8 percentage points less one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Model as of 2026-09-04 · Compared with 17 industry peers
PHM — capital allocation — CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALAN…
Dated 2026-08-12
CREATION OF A DIRECT FINANCIAL OBLIGATION OR AN OBLIGATION UNDER AN OFF-BALANCE SHEET ARRANGEMENT OF A REGISTRANT All the information set forth above under
Why it matters: Slower growth in community count may reduce future orders.
Worry ifCommunity count growth slows to below 5% in Q3 2026.
Less concerning ifCommunity count growth remains above 5% in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: The change may affect financial plans and how the company operates.
Watch forThe change to new CFO Jim Ossowski went smoothly.
Also watch forDelays or problems in the change process can hurt financial operations.
Why it matters: Land acquisition is key for future growth. Success here supports community growth plans.
Supportive ifManagement says they successfully bought land. This supports 3% to 5% growth in the community.
Worry ifManagement says there are delays or problems with land buying plans.
Why it matters: Falling below this level means profits are getting worse due to competition.
Worry ifHome sale gross margin for Q3 reported below 24.0%.
Less concerning ifHome sale gross margin for Q3 reported at or above 24.0%.
Why it matters: Increased buybacks would show strong capital return and confidence in cash flow.
Supportive ifShare repurchases exceed $400 million in Q3 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $300 million in Q3 2026.
Why it matters: A big drop in home sale money could mean worse market conditions and less demand.
Worry ifQ3 home sale revenues drop more than 10% year over year.
Less concerning ifHome sale revenues decline less than 10% year over year or increase.
Why it matters: A bigger repurchase program shows strong returns of capital. It also shows confidence in future.
Supportive ifShare repurchases total $1 billion or more by the end of 2026.
Worry ifShare repurchases total less than $1 billion by the end of 2026.
Why it matters: Developing the land pipeline is crucial for future growth. Changes may indicate shifts in market strategy.
Watch forPulteGroup announces new land buys or development plans. These plans help its growth.
Also watch forNo new land buys are announced. This may mean slow growth ahead.
Why it matters: Lower cash flow may mean financial trouble. This could affect future investments.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Less concerning ifCash flow from operations remains above $1 billion in Q2 2026.
Why it matters: Weak cash flow could indicate challenges in managing costs and investments.
Worry ifQ2 cash flow from operations reported below $150 million.
Less concerning ifQ2 cash flow from operations reported at $150 million or higher.
Why it matters: Regular share buybacks show good use of money and trust in management.
Supportive ifPulteGroup announces share repurchases of $300 million or more in the next quarter.
Worry ifShare repurchases fall below $300 million in the next quarter.
Why it matters: More new orders would show stronger demand and a recovering market.
Supportive ifNet new orders in Q3 increase more than 5% year over year.
Worry ifNet new orders in Q3 decrease or grow less than 5% year over year.
Why it matters: More buybacks show that management believes in the company. They want to give cash back to shareholders.
Supportive ifAnnouncement of a new share repurchase program or an increase in the current program.
Worry ifNo news about share buyback programs in the next quarter.
Why it matters: A drop below this level would signal weakening demand in a tough housing market.
Worry ifNet new orders for Q3 fall below 7,000 homes.
Less concerning ifNet new orders for Q3 stay above 7,000 homes.
Why it matters: Falling below this level means profits are getting worse due to competition.
Worry ifGross margin for Q3 reported below 24.0%.
Less concerning ifGross margin for Q3 reported above 24.0%.
Why it matters: Better cash flow helps with investments and returning money to investors.
Supportive ifCash flow from operations exceeds $300 million in Q3.
Worry ifCash flow from operations falls below $200 million in Q3.
We watch for confirming and disproving signals on each item. Resolutions are found automatically where possible and checked by hand for unclear cases. Last 90 days shown.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the broad stock market and long-term interest rates.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-09-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$139 on $10,000 · ±1.4% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $330 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,260 loss on $10,000 · 22.6% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.