PulteGroup (PHM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$135.97+7.16%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
QuarterlyIQ Insights · PHM
What must go right, what could break, what the price assumes, and what evidence comes next.
The current health of the standing investment case.
No current thesis-health read is available for this company.
One-year growth currently built into the price, compared with our model's estimate.
| Measure | Marker shape | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Growth built into the price | circle | 26.0% |
| Our one-year growth estimate | diamond | -1.5% |
For each item: what to watch, what would become a concern, and what would make it less concerning.
A reporting-risk estimate, not a forecast of the stock-price response.
Historical relationships that met the evidence threshold. They do not prove cause or forecast a move.
Usually moved in the opposite direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Usually moved in the same direction.
Price observations: 365 days
Most sensitive to the US dollar and the broad stock market.
Based on historical daily prices through 2026-11-04.
Past price behavior in dollars on a $10,000 position. This does not measure permanent business risk.
How much price usually moves either way.
Use the underlying financial and sector pages to investigate the cause.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
Growth built into the price is above our model estimate.
The price assumes 27.6 percentage points more one-year growth.
The one-year revenue growth assumption on Valuation.
Model as of 2026-11-04 · Compared with 12 industry peers · Company calendar date is not available
PHM — earnings miss
Dated 2026-10-22
of this Current Report on Form 8-K, including the earnings press release incorporated in such Item 2.02, shall not be deemed “filed” for purposes of Section 18 of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, nor shall it be incorporated by reference in any filing under the Securities Act of 1933, except as expressly set forth by specific reference in such filing. SIGNATURES Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on…
Why it matters: Orders rose in Q2 but fell 6% in Q3. A rebound would show demand holding up despite higher rates.
Watch forQ4 net new orders exceed 6,208 homes, the Q3 total.
Also watch forQ4 net new orders fall below 6,208 homes.
Why it matters: Cash from operations fell to $637 million in the first nine months, from $1.10 billion a year earlier. Continued weakness may limit cash available for other uses.
Worry ifFull-year 2026 operating cash flow is under $1.10 billion. That was the 2025 nine-month figure.
Less concerning ifFull-year 2026 operating cash flow reaches $1.10 billion or more.
Why it matters: Margin fell from 25.0% in Q2 to 24.8% in Q3. Further decline would point to more pressure from incentives or land costs.
Worry ifQ4 home sale gross margin is below 24.8%.
Less concerning ifQ4 home sale gross margin is 24.8% or higher, with no land charges that push it below that level.
Why it matters: Q3 closings fell 9% from a year earlier, and home sale revenue fell 9%. Another drop would deepen that decline.
Worry ifQ4 closings are below 6,876 homes.
Less concerning ifQ4 closings reach 6,876 homes or more.
A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days.
Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year.
| Measure | Value | Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Typical day | ±$152 on $10,000 · ±1.5% | How much price usually moves either way. |
| Bad day | $327 loss on $10,000 · 3.3% | A larger daily loss that occurred about once in every 20 trading days. |
| Largest peak-to-trough drop in the past year | $2,313 loss on $10,000 · 23.1% | Deepest peak-to-trough drop in the last year. |
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement; 1.20 means about 20% more.
Past year. 1.00 means similar movement to the sector. This is secondary context.
Latest 30 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
Latest 252 trading days, shown as an annual percentage.
20-trading-day average in US dollars.
Trading days used by the source risk snapshot.
Past results, not a forecast. Not investment advice.
Why it matters: Management linked higher mortgage rates and inflation to weaker demand. CPI may add context on these pressures. But the release alone does not show changes in mortgage rates.
Watch forThe Nov. 10 CPI release shows inflation easing from the prior reading, while mortgage rates also decline after the release.
Also watch forThe Nov. 10 CPI release shows inflation rising from the prior reading, while mortgage rates also increase after the release.