Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
PulteGroup (PHM)
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
$135.97+7.16%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEConsumer DiscretionaryResidential ConstructionSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
11.08 → 9.62 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 11 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 10 to 11; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PHM yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain strong cash flow through asset management | The company aims to keep strong cash flow. | Under Pressure | cash flow remains negative or worsens | Cash from operations: $460.164M FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: Positive cash flow from operations. Target period is not explicitly aligned with this observation. Oct 22, 2026460,164,000 USD · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PHM is a cyclical homebuilder, so results depend in part on housing demand and conditions across the sector. The long-term thesis is fragile rather than clearly improving: momentum weakened, a recent earnings miss was reported, and the available evidence is not enough to determine a firm thesis state.
The evidence labels valuation as stretched, while also indicating that PHM is cheap versus peers. The expectations gap is 0.18, but its scale is not defined in the snapshot, so it does not establish how much disappointment the market already assumes.
Near term, results remain exposed to demand pressure: third-quarter home sale revenues and closings were both lower than a year earlier, and management’s effort to balance price, sales pace, and production is rated behind. Community count grew year over year, while share repurchases continued; the snapshot also reports operating cash flow of $636,966,000 for the first nine months of 2026, making the scale of capital returns relevant to watch.
A guidance cut on the next call would add to concerns about execution and estimates. Over the multi-year view, the balance between home demand, selling pace, pricing, and production is central, alongside whether community growth can support operations. Results and guidance from DHI, LEN, and NVR are useful sector signals: continued strength could support the backdrop, while misses or lower guidance could weaken it.
Over the next one to three years, PHM’s thesis depends on demand stabilizing and management improving execution, with community growth and capital returns as supporting factors. The evidence is mixed, and the current valuation signals point in different directions. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in PulteGroup's published investment case. The stated target is 3% to 5% annual growth. |
| Intact |
| community growth falls below 3% annually |
Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. Management contextStated in 2 of 8 supplied quarters. Management reported: “Given these market dynamics, we remain focused on intelligently turning our assets, generating strong cash flows, and further developing a land pipeline that can routinely support community count growth of 3% to 5% annually.”” ““Along with increased net new orders, we generated strong closings, revenues and earnings, while investing $1.3 billion into land acquisition and development and returning $360 million back to shareholders.” Delivery assessment Nov 4, 2026 |
Expand share repurchase program by $1.5 billion | It raised its buyback program by $1.5 billion. | Intact | no further buyback increases or buybacks stop | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$11.21 → $9.62 · observed estimates
$17.12B → $15.70B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-07-25 | $11.24 | $17,122,168,510 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-26 | $11.24 | $17,122,168,510 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-27 | $11.24 | $17,122,168,510 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-28 | $11.24 | $17,122,168,510 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-29 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-30 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-07-31 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-01 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-02 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-03 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-04 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-05 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-06 | $11.24 | $17,080,735,180 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-07 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-08 | $11.24 | $17,122,168,510 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-09 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-10 | $11.24 | $17,122,168,510 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-12 | $11.24 | $17,122,168,510 | 12 / 12 |
| 2026-08-13 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-14 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-15 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-16 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-17 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-18 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-19 | $11.21 | $17,122,168,510 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-20 | $11.25 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-21 | $11.25 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-22 | $11.25 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-23 | $11.25 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-24 | $11.25 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-25 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-26 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-27 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-28 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-30 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-08-31 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-01 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-02 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-03 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | $11.24 | $17,122,204,693 | 10 / 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | $11.25 | $17,113,265,871 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-06 | $11.25 | $17,113,265,871 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-07 | $11.25 | $17,113,265,871 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-08 | $11.23 | $17,102,309,178 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-09 | $11.23 | $17,102,309,178 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-10 | $11.23 | $17,102,309,178 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-11 | $11.23 | $17,102,309,178 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-12 | $11.24 | $17,104,045,009 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-13 | $11.24 | $17,104,045,009 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-14 | $11.24 | $17,104,045,009 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | $11.24 | $17,104,045,009 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-16 | $11.24 | $17,104,045,009 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-17 | $11.23 | $17,104,352,701 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-18 | $11.23 | $17,104,352,701 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | $11.23 | $17,104,352,701 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-20 | $11.23 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-21 | $11.23 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-22 | $11.23 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-23 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-24 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-25 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-27 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-28 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-29 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-09-30 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-01 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-02 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-03 | $11.14 | $17,104,355,028 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-04 | $11.08 | $17,052,281,228 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-05 | $11.08 | $17,052,281,228 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-06 | $11.08 | $17,052,281,228 | 10 / 10 |
| 2026-10-07 | $11.05 | $17,033,689,146 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-08 | $11.02 | $16,992,851,342 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-09 | $11.02 | $16,992,851,342 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-10 | $11.02 | $16,992,851,342 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-11 | $11.02 | $16,992,851,342 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-12 | $11.02 | $16,992,851,342 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-13 | $10.98 | $16,954,747,876 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-14 | $10.98 | $16,954,749,888 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-15 | $10.98 | $16,954,749,888 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-16 | $10.92 | $16,902,216,556 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-17 | $10.92 | $16,902,216,556 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-18 | $10.87 | $16,798,751,220 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-19 | $10.87 | $16,798,751,220 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-20 | $10.87 | $16,798,751,220 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-21 | $10.85 | $16,798,751,220 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-22 | $10.85 | $16,798,751,220 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-23 | $10.02 | $16,085,954,003 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-24 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-25 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-26 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-27 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-28 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-29 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-30 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-10-31 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-01 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-02 | $9.72 | $15,802,373,861 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-03 | $9.72 | $15,802,351,214 | 11 / 11 |
| 2026-11-04 | $9.62 | $15,696,878,622 | 11 / 11 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 10 Buy / Strong Buy · 7 Hold · 1 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 9 recorded
0 raises · 1 cuts · 0 unchanged · 3 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.