Expectations trend
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
Prologis (PLD)
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
$131.36+1.77%
Close 2026-11-04 · 1-day change
NYSEReal EstateReit - IndustrialSnapshot 2026-11-04
The long-term thesis, the evidence coming in, and the environment around it. Thesis dated Jul 8, 2026.
Next-FY EPS estimate change · 30 days
3.49 → 3.34 EPS · FY ending Dec 31, 2027 · 4 analysts
One observable signal. This measures changing earnings expectations, not the probability of a gain or loss.
Change in the same fiscal period’s mean EPS estimate from Oct 5, 2026 to Nov 4, 2026: (new ÷ prior − 1). Contributor count changed from 3 to 4; this is not the number of analysts revising. The ±10% axis is a display range.
The EPS and P/E reference is not available for PLD yet.
| Measure / period | Management expectations | Analyst expectations |
|---|
Management figures unavailable.
Current consensus figures unavailable.
Three published thesis conditions, with dated milestones shown separately.
| Key Factor | Why It Matters | Current Status | Break Condition | Latest Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Maintain debt around $35B to fund growth | The company issues debt to fund growth. | Intact | Debt rises significantly above $35B without growth benefit | Direct metric needs a verified mapping The published measure or accounting basis is not supported by an exact source binding. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Compare these dated observations with the operating requirements above
FY2027 · fiscal year ending 2027-12-31 · fmp
The evidence, the remaining questions, and what comes next
No recovery evidence is reported in the available driver assessments.
Next earnings date unavailable
Look for updated results and guidance against the published targets, plus direct evidence for unresolved drivers.
Observed price history; separate from operating scenarios
The weekly editorial context below is a separate assessment from the dated monitor evidence above. Recovery observations do not automatically change the published thesis. Unverified outside influences are hypotheses, not measured driver evidence.
PLD is a logistics real estate business whose multi-year view depends on operating its portfolio and maintaining occupancy and same-store net operating income growth. The thesis has weakened this week, with management priorities still on watch and the signal now mixed.
The valuation is tagged as stretched, and PLD trades at a premium to peers, with a re-rating identified as the main valuation driver. The expectations gap is positive, but the evidence does not detail exactly what the market assumes; priced-in fragility is rated low.
Near-term evidence is mixed: PLD reported an earnings beat on October 15, but recent financial performance has slipped to the lower half of its industry over the past month, and momentum fell sharply. Miss risk is rated low, though the company has a history of a deep miss and missed its most recent quarter; the next guidance update is an important watch point.
Over the multi-year view, the thesis hinges on portfolio growth, occupancy, same-store net operating income growth, and execution on the proposed SEGRO combination. Near-term, Fed rate cuts could support the sector, while a guidance cut or signs of weakness at sector peers could remove support.
For the next 1 to 3 years, PLD’s logistics-property thesis remains intact but has weakened, with stretched valuation and recent execution signals calling for attention. The evidence is mixed and confidence is medium. Not investment advice.
Not investment advice. Scores describe historical and current data; they are not forecasts of future returns. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
| A primary condition in Prologis's published investment case. The stated target is >= $3.80. |
| Intact |
| Diluted EPS falls below $3.80 in FY26 |
Diluted EPS: $0.86 per share FY2026-Q3; GAAP. Published target: >= $3.80. Annual target cannot be compared with a quarterly or TTM observation. Oct 28, 20260.86 USD/share · source valueLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Strategic capital revenue of $660M to $680M in 2026 | A primary condition in Prologis's published investment case. The stated target is >= $660M. | Intact | Strategic capital revenue falls below $660M in FY26 | Required source inputs unavailable Cannot calculate segment_revenue from the available matching source inputs. Missing inputs are not treated as zero. Date unavailableLast status assessment Nov 4, 2026Compare required operating outcomesCompare scope, accounting basis and period before treating this evidence as progress against an annual requirement. |
Stored thesis · Jul 8, 2026. Latest Evidence uses source-matched measurements where available, alongside the last thesis-monitor assessment. Source periods and assessment dates are shown separately. A new measurement does not automatically change the published status or verify an older target.
$3.44 → $3.34 · observed estimates
$9.14B → $9.49B · observed estimates
One fiscal period and provider throughout. At least five contributors are required for each plotted metric; missing coverage stays a gap. Axes show the observed range. Counts measure coverage, not revisions.
| Snapshot | EPS | Revenue | EPS / revenue analysts |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | $3.44 | $9,143,080,200 | 3 / 5 |
| 2026-07-25 | $3.40 | $9,210,933,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-26 | $3.56 | $9,215,185,167 | 3 / 4 |
| 2026-07-27 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-28 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-29 | $3.40 | $9,210,933,500 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-07-30 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-07-31 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-01 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-02 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-03 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-04 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-05 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-06 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-07 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-08 | $3.40 | $9,223,616,670 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-09 | $3.40 | $9,223,616,670 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-10 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-12 | $3.40 | $9,223,616,670 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-13 | $3.40 | $9,223,616,670 | 4 / 6 |
| 2026-08-14 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-16 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-17 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-18 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-19 | $3.65 | $9,245,482,200 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-20 | $3.65 | $9,268,928,571 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-21 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-22 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-23 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-08-24 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-25 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-26 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-27 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-28 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-29 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-30 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-08-31 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-01 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-02 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-03 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-04 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-05 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-06 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-07 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-08 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-09 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-10 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 4 / 3 |
| 2026-09-11 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-13 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-14 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-15 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-16 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-17 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-18 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-19 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-20 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-21 | $3.65 | $9,381,357,143 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-22 | $3.67 | $9,434,348,167 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-23 | $3.67 | $9,434,348,167 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-24 | $3.67 | $9,434,348,167 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-25 | $3.67 | $9,434,348,167 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-26 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-27 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-28 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-29 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-09-30 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-01 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-02 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-03 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-04 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-05 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-06 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-07 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-08 | $3.49 | $9,418,887,571 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-09 | $3.49 | $9,489,814,125 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-10 | $3.49 | $9,489,814,125 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-11 | $3.49 | $9,489,814,125 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-12 | $3.49 | $9,489,814,125 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-13 | $3.49 | $9,428,320,500 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-14 | $3.49 | $9,489,808,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-15 | $3.49 | $9,489,808,000 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-16 | $3.49 | $9,498,085,625 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-17 | $3.49 | $9,498,085,625 | 2 / 2 |
| 2026-10-18 | $3.49 | $9,573,812,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-19 | $3.49 | $9,573,812,600 | 2 / 3 |
| 2026-10-20 | $3.42 | $9,532,587,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-21 | $3.42 | $9,532,587,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-22 | $3.42 | $9,532,587,000 | 3 / 3 |
| 2026-10-23 | $3.39 | $9,527,687,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-24 | $3.33 | $9,661,837,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-25 | $3.33 | $9,661,837,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-26 | $3.33 | $9,661,837,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-27 | $3.33 | $9,661,837,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-28 | $3.33 | $9,661,837,000 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-29 | $3.33 | $9,661,834,375 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-30 | $3.33 | $9,661,834,375 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-10-31 | $3.33 | $9,462,795,833 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-01 | $3.33 | $9,482,949,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-02 | $3.33 | $9,482,949,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-03 | $3.34 | $9,485,449,167 | 4 / 4 |
| 2026-11-04 | $3.34 | $9,485,449,167 | 4 / 4 |
Revenue and EPS estimates track expectations. They are not delivered results or like-for-like proof of a required annual path.
Latest: 14 Buy / Strong Buy · 3 Hold · 0 Sell / Strong Sell
Recent actions · Oct 6–Nov 4 · 6 recorded
0 raises · 2 cuts · 0 unchanged · 4 without a comparable prior
Oct 6, 2026–Nov 4, 2026. Each firm's latest positive target is paired only with its immediately prior positive target from the same provider, at most 180 days earlier. Unmatched observations have one dot; conflicting observations are not compared.
3 of 3 published conditions remain under pressure or need verification. The next results need to address those conditions.
The dated weekly assessment and its assumptions are available in Read detailed Outlook.